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Asia stocks, US futures gain before rate decisions
Jun 11, 2023 9:16 PM

Asian stocks and US equity futures made small gains while major currencies traded in narrow ranges in cautious trading early Monday as investors await interest rate decisions this week from the US, Europe, China and Japan. Treasuries were little changed.

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Japan’s Topix index added 0.5 percent, South Korea’s benchmark edged up by 0.1 percent and contracts for Hong Kong pointed to a small drop. Australian markets were closed for a holiday. Futures for the S&P 500 crept up by 0.1 percent after the underlying gauge inched further into bull-market territory on Friday.

Technology shares have continued to climb amid bets the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its hiking cycle. Positioning in rates markets suggests one more hike, with the likelihood that the move comes next month rather than this Wednesday.

Yet there is also concern that the Fed’s ten hikes have done damage, which has bond managers including Fidelity International to Allianz Global Investors forecasting an economic downturn. Meanwhile, unexpected hikes last week from the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia have added an extra element of uncertainty.

The European Central Bank is projected to lift its benchmark rate Thursday, there’s an outside chance of China cutting its medium-term lending facility the same day and the Bank of Japan is expected to stand pat on Friday.

Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, cautioned against assuming the recent upswing in equities can gain momentum after the S&P 500 already rose 20% from its recent low.

“While many investors believe that passing this milestone puts markets in bull territory, it remains possible that we are seeing a bear market rally — a period of strong gains that occurs in the middle of a bear market,” she said. “Until markets reach a new all-time high, it’s impossible to know whether the bear market trough —the ultimate low of the market cycle — is behind us.”

In currency markets Monday, the dollar was little changed versus the yen, the euro and the offshore yuan.

Treasury yields were little changed after rising Friday following disappointing employment data from Canada. The country’s economy ended its eight-month run of employment gains with minor job losses in May, signaling weakness in the labor market.

Oil held losses amid persistent concerns around the demand outlook as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its price forecast again. Brent futures traded below $75 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate was below $70.

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