India is expanding its vaccination drive to all of its population above 45 years from April 1, and is targeting around 30 crore people. So far, India has administered 5.8 crore doses of vaccination to 4.3 crore people at the rate of 23 lakh vaccines per day, said a CLSA report, adding that at the current rate, it will take eight more months to vaccinate those over 45 years.

Covishield makes up 91 percent of the doses administered and capacity expansion by the Serum Institute and the potential approval of the Sputnik V vaccine may help ease supply concerns, the report said.

Drive has picked up, but will take longer than most countries

The brokerage note states that though India has administered the third-highest number of doses globally, it’s behind other countries in terms of the percentage of population vaccinated. Just 0.6 percent of its population has been fully vaccinated, and 2.5 percent have received just one dose. This compares to 9 percent to 60 percent in countries such as the US, the UK, Israel, France, and others.

At the current pace, UAE, Israel, the UK, and US may achieve full vaccination within 3-6 months, but India may take as long as 3.3 years given its large population.

Kerala, Gujarat, Rajasthan leading

The brokerage note states: “Kerala, Gujarat and Rajasthan are leading but Bihar, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh (UP) are lagging.” At the current pace of vaccination, India will need 8/25 months to vaccinate all of its population over 45/18 years. At their respective paces, Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Kerala will take 4-5/15-17 months while the lagging states of Bihar, Punjab, Telangana, UP, and Tamil Nadu will take much longer 12-16/36-52 months.

“India lags on the percentage of the population but is second only to the US among absolute vaccination numbers,” states the CLSA note.

Vaccine landscape largely unchanged in India

Currently, only two vaccines — Covishield and Covaxin — have been granted emergency use authorisation by India. Phase III trials of the Sputnik V vaccine have concluded but the regulator has asked for additional data, while Cadila's vaccine candidate and NovaVax are also under phase II and phase III trials. Approval of these vaccinations will be necessary to boost supply, states the CLSA note.