Bitcoin (BTC) and the crypto market have stayed somewhat resilient on Monday even as AI-linked tech stocks came under pressure.

BTC held around $65,000, up 4% since Friday, while ether (ETH) hit its strongest price in nearly two months. Meanwhile, Nvidia’s 4.8% decline led AI-favorites lower, even as the overall Nasdaq was about flat thanks to gains in hyperscalers Apple, Microsoft ( MSFT ), and Google ( GOOG ).

That resilience, however, is about to face its biggest test.

With the Federal Reserve's policy decision, key U.S. inflation data and earnings from several technology giants all due this week, analysts say the next few days could determine whether bitcoin finally breaks out of its months-long trading range or rolls over to revisit the June lows.

‘Encouraging’ technical picture

“The recent resilience of crypto during periods of volatility in traditional markets is an encouraging development,” said Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group. "It supports the argument that digital assets are beginning to decouple, at least at the margin, from conventional risk assets."

Kruger said bitcoin needs to clear $67,300 to break out of the multi-week consolidation that has capped prices since June. A move above that level could signal the next leg of higher, while ether (ETH) faces a similar test at $2,000.

Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmine and co-founder of Fundstrat, also noted ether’s recent outperformance relative to BTC as a bullish signal for crypto markets. The ETH-BTC ratio, which measures the price of ether in bitcoin, climbed to a three-month high on Monday.

Rally lacks demand amid macro risks

Still, not everyone is convinced about bitcoin’s strength.

Nansen senior research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard said the recent rebound lacks the buying conviction typically seen before sustained rallies.

“The market is holding range without strong buyers, not building toward a breakout,” Sondergaard said.

His base case remains a pullback toward $52,000-$58,000 unless market conditions improve.

While nearly 9,000 BTC left exchanges over the past week, open interest in bitcoin futures has fallen even as prices edged higher, suggesting traders are reducing exposure rather than adding fresh bullish bets. Order-book data also continues to point to net selling pressure, he said.

Sondergaard said the Fed's rate decision and communication about it will likely set the tone for risk assets on Wednesday. Investors will also be watching Thursday's core PCE inflation report, second-quarter GDP data and earnings from Microsoft ( MSFT ), Meta, Apple and Amazon before Friday's roughly $13-14 billion bitcoin and ether options expiry.

For Nansen to turn more constructive, the firm wants to see stronger stablecoin inflows to exchanges, sustained spot bitcoin ETF buying and signs that long-term holders have stopped selling at a loss.

Until then, Sondergaard views the recent recovery as a positioning bounce rather than the start of a broader uptrend.