07:10 AM EDT, 07/19/2024 (MT Newswires) -- BMO Economics noted Friday that U.S. equity futures were flat-to-slightly lower this morning as an overnight tech outage drove disruption in a number of sectors. UST yields were little changed this morning, with 10-year yields hovering around 4.20%, a couple of bps higher from last week's close, but that comes after hitting multi-month lows earlier this week. The USD index was firmer, with the greenback gaining against nearly all the major currencies. The loonie was among the better performers, just a touch weaker around C$1.371. Commodity prices were broadly lower, with WTI off 0.3% to $82.50, while gold was down over 1% to $2413 after hitting a record high earlier this week.

In terms of data, Canada takes the spotlight today, with no U.S. data out. May retail sales are out at 8.30am ET. BMO said the report is expected to reflect the ongoing struggle of Canadian consumers with headline sales down 0.6%. It noted auto purchase activity was little changed in the month, leaving sales excluding autos down 0.5%, with lower gasoline prices weighing as well. Volumes will likely see a small decline as lower prices help a bit. The bank noted that volumes have been flat or lower in four of the past six months and are up a meagre 0.8% y/y, despite population growth above 3%.

BMO said retail sales are "the last piece of the puzzle" ahead of next week's May GDP report. It added the flash estimate was +0.1%, and with manufacturing & wholesale figures in hand, if retail volumes are close to its call (small negative), that would put GDP on track to match the flash.

At the same time, BMO noted, we'll also get June industrial product prices (expected to fall 0.3%) and raw materials prices (expected to fall 1%). Also, May household credit growth will be out at the same time and looks to stay in the mid-3% range.

There are two Fed speakers on tap today: New York's Williams at 10:40 am, and Atlanta's Bostic at 1 pm.