04:40 PM EDT, 04/11/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Recent economic data have reduced the urgency to lower interest rates, stressing the need for continued patience as the disinflation process will likely be uneven, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said Thursday.
Collins, who is not a Federal Open Market Committee voting member this year, said recent stronger-than-expected jobs and inflation data have not materially changed her outlook, though they have eased her concerns about an "imminent need to reassess the stance of monetary policy."
The Fed branch head expects to see further evidence of inflation returning to the central bank's 2% target, though "disinflation may continue to be uneven," she said in prepared remarks for a speech in New York. "This also implies that less easing of policy this year than previously thought may be warranted," according to Collins.
Some higher inflation readings early in 2024 should not necessarily have been surprising, she said. Consumer inflation was hotter than expected in March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday.
Markets widely expect the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee to keep its rates unchanged on May 1, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The odds for a 25-basis-point cut in June were at 22% on Thursday, up from 16% on Wednesday but sharply down from 59% a week ago.
Overall, the economy is coming into better balance, with demand and supply more closely aligning in the healthy labor market, she said. "As a result, I do expect it will be appropriate to begin lowering the federal funds rate later this year," Collins said.
"It may just take more time than previously thought for activity to moderate, and to see further progress in inflation returning durably to our target," Collins said. "Less concern about labor market fragilities, combined with the possibility that policy is only modestly restrictive, also reduces the urgency to ease."
On Thursday, the Department of Labor reported that applications for unemployment insurance declined more than expected during the week ended April 6.