In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Laurence Balanco of CLSA, said that Brent can be back at USD 90-92 per barrel if Russia-Ukraine crisis de-escalates.
NSE
"What we typically see is an accelerated top advance by the time you get any clarity on the ground and a de-escalation of the conflict. Brent returned back to where it started as well as gold. So the reversal that we saw last night in gold, we think it would start to mean reverting back towards the old breakout area. So $90-93 per barrel becomes the new floor for Brent," he said.
Also Read:
EU not to ban Russian oil like US: Josep Borrell exclusive
On the Indian market, he said that he continues to see lower highs. He explained that bear run in an emerging market usually means 30-35 percent decline from the high levels. Elaborating on Nifty, he said that the equity benchmark index will be capped around 17,000-17,300 levels on the upside while the lower end could test 15,200-15,300-mark. Additionally, he mentioned that FMCG and autos are likely to remain in a downtrend.
"We continue to make lower highs, which suggests that we've seen some residual sellers out there keeping the market in the downtrend. Previously we talked about the Nifty trading in a range and consolidating the impressive gains that it had last year. What we have seen last week was a break below the bottom into that trading range. And that came through roughly at the 16,400 area. So we've got a slightly lower range than we initially anticipated. Basically the bottom of the range, we think for the Nifty is around the 15,200 to 15,300 area. We think the upside is capped between 17,000 and 17,300," he said.
"We have seen recently a breakdown in the auto space. So we think that will be a drag to the downside. The fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) space remains in the downtrend. We haven't really seen a rebound in that," he added.
"If we look at the definition of a bear market it means that 20 percent decline and it's roughly the same for a number of Asian markets. Once you get past that 20 percent decline, the average bear markets is for a total of 35 to 34 percent decline from the peak to the trough, and the duration of that varies between six to ten months. So that that'll give you a broad proxy on a typical bear market for the Nifty," he explained.
Also Read: Wait before buying market dips; expect 2022 to be tough: Standard Chartered Bank
Watch the video for the full interview.
Catch all stock market updates here