LONDON, May 7 (Reuters) - Euro zone yields fell for a
fourth straight session on Tuesday after investors increased
their bets on interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and
the European Central Bank this year, following weak U.S. jobs
data on Friday.
Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for
the euro zone, was down 5.5 basis points (bps) to 2.418%, its
lowest level since April 15.
Money markets priced around 75 bps of ECB rate cuts in 2024
, a level reached last week after the U.S.
data. They discounted 45 bps of Fed monetary easing,
implying an 80% chance of a second cut in 2024.
A string of hot data in the world's most important
economy had led investors to price less than two Fed rate cuts
this year, down from around seven at the start of 2024. The
importance of the U.S. economy meant investors also lowered
their expectations for other major central banks.
"Little stands in the way of the gradual drift lower in
yields," said Christoph Rieger, head of rates and credit
research at Commerzbank.
"The thin (data) calendar ... is unlikely to change the view
that the U.S. economy is slowly losing steam."
Italy's 10-year government bond yield dropped
3.5 bps to 3.77%.
The spread between Italian and German 10-year yields - a
gauge of risk-premium investors ask to hold bonds of the euro
area's most indebted countries - was up 4 bps at 134.50 bps
after reaching 135.60, its widest level since April 26.
It briefly
hit
a fresh 1-1/2-month low at 120.20 on Monday as
Fitch
confirmed a BBB rating on the Italian debt.
Preliminary data showed on Tuesday that orders for
BTP-valore - a new retail bond Italy is offering this week -
were at 5 billion euros at 0940 GMT of the second day of the
offering, down from 11.5 billion euros at the end of the second
day of February's sale.
Retail investors have supported demand for peripheral
bonds for months as they rushed to lock in the most appealing
returns over a decade. Bond prices move inversely with yields.
Germany's 2-year bond yield, which is more sensitive
to policy rate expectations, was down 1 bp at 2.904%.
Data on Tuesday showed that German exports rebounded in
March, supported by strong U.S. and Chinese demand, although a
disappointing month for industrial orders indicated weakness in
the economy was lingering.
"We expect rising real wages and easing financial conditions
to boost domestic demand over the coming quarters, with a
rotation back from services to goods," said Christian Schulz,
deputy chief European economist at Citi.
"However, we expect the impetus to be curbed by fiscal
normalization and lagged effects of the sharp monetary
tightening," he added.
ECB policymakers said on Monday they were growing more
confident about cutting interest rates, as the economy returns
to mild growth and inflation looks to be under control.
Gross domestic product figures last week showed the euro
zone's economy grew 0.3% in the first quarter after a small
recession. Euro zone inflation fell to 2.4% in April.