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CEE MARKETS-Currencies down, under pressure from stronger dollar
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CEE MARKETS-Currencies down, under pressure from stronger dollar
Nov 3, 2024 11:22 AM

By Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk

WARSAW, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Central European currencies

were weaker on Friday, under pressure from a stronger dollar as

traders bet that the U.S. Federal Reserve will slow rate cuts

and amid uncertainty about the upcoming U.S. presidential

election.

Hungary's forint was trading 0.3% lower on the day

at 403.8 per euro at 0824 GMT, its lowest since Dec. 27, 2022.

Central European currencies are being pressured by a rise in

U.S. Treasury yields and uncertainties surrounding the U.S.

presidential election, an FX trader in Budapest said.

"I think the uncertainties around the American election are

more or less priced in by now. The next step is now the

election, the result could push the dollar in either direction,

and this will affect the region," he said.

"Today's move is not very big so far. Technically, the way

is open for the forint to weaken as far as 405 or 407," a second

FX traders aid.

The dollar got a boost as investors no longer expect an

outsized 50-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, a

view that is reflected in rising Treasury yields.

The dollar was also supported by anticipation that Donald

Trump could win a second term as U.S. president, as his tax and

tariff policies are considered inflationary, which markets

anticipate would keep U.S. rates high and hit trading partner

currencies.

The forint's weakness forced the National Bank of Hungary to

pause its rate cuts at its meeting on Tuesday.

On Friday, ratings agency Standard and Poor's is expected to

release its review of Hungary's debt ratings and the wait for

that has also kept investors cautious.

The zloty was down 0.1% against the euro at 4.35.

"The EUR/PLN exchange rate is stuck at around 4.34... Today

we do not expect any major changes in the Polish currency. In

our opinion, the macro data calendar does not contain

information that could significantly influence sentiment," Bank

Millennium analysts said in a note.

"The issue of the upcoming presidential elections in the

United States remains the dominant topic in the valuation of

assets in developed markets."

The Czech crown is down 0.16% at 25.24 per euro on

the day and flat for the week.

Rate-setter Jan Prochazka told Reuters the Czech National

Bank can continue easing monetary policy amid weaker growth

abroad and a slow domestic demand recovery, but must be mindful

of inflation hotspots, especially in the services sector.

The Prague bourse was a touch down as shares in Moneta

fell 0.3% after reaching an all-time high on Thursday

following a rise in its profit outlook. The Warsaw blue-chip

index fell 0.5% while Budapest was up 0.9%.

Hungary's pharmaceutical company Richter was up 1%

by 0851 GMT after the company announced a new collaboration with

U.S. pharma company AbbVie late on Thursday for the discovery

and developments of novel targets of neuropsychiatric

conditions.

CEE SNAPSHOT AT 1024 CET

MARKET

S

CURRENCIES

Latest Previo Daily Change

us

trade close change in 2024

EURCZK Czech 0

EURHUF Hungary 00

EURPLN Polish EURRON Romania EURRSD Serbian 00

Note: calculated from 1800 CET

daily

change

Latest Previo Daily Change

us

close change in 2024

.PX Prague 1645.52 1647.6 -0.13% +16.37

900 %

.BUX Budapes 74398.13 73715. +0.93% +22.73

t 29 %

.WIG20 Warsaw 5

.BETI Buchare 16 %

Spread Daily

vs Bund change

in

Czech Republic spread

CZ2YT= 0

CZ5YT= CZ10YT 0

Poland

PL2YT= 0

PL5YT= 0

PL10YT FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6 6x9 9x12 3M

interba

nk

Czech Hungary Poland Note: are for ask

FRA prices

quotes

******************************************************

********

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