By Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk and Anita Komuves
WARSAW/BUDAPEST, Oct 28 (Reuters) - The Hungarian forint
and Polish zloty were hovering around recent lows on Monday amid
uncertainty about the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, while
Czech markets were closed for a public holiday.
With no major events planned in central Europe in the first
half of the week, traders were focusing on political news from
the U.S.
"This is not a story about the forint. The entire emerging
market is under pressure as the U.S. presidential election is
approaching - that is a huge question mark," a Budapest-based
trader said.
"I do not expect a big strengthening from the forint, but it
won't get too weak either. I think it will keep trading between
400 and 410, as market sentiment is for the time being driven by
the U.S. ... election and the uncertainty it brings."
Hungary's forint was unchanged at 404.1 per euro
at 0805 GMT.
Standard and Poor's affirmed Hungary's credit rating on
Friday, but such a decision was already priced in, the trader
added.
The U.S. dollar is headed for its biggest monthly gain since
April 2022 in November thanks to solid data from the American
economy, as investors no longer expect a 50-basis-point rate cut
from the Federal Reserve.
It was also supported by anticipation that Donald Trump
could win a second term as U.S. president, as his tax and tariff
policies are considered inflationary, which markets anticipate
would keep U.S. rates high and hit trading partner currencies.
Markets are awaiting data from the region in the second half
of the week, with flash GDP for the third quarter in the Czech
Republic and Hungary to be published on Wednesday and PMI
surveys expected on Friday.
Investors will also be watching flash CPI data from Poland
on Thursday as well as a series of data from core markets,
including the U.S. payrolls report.
In Poland, the government is due to discuss amendments to
the 2024 budget on Tuesday, which may put pressure on domestic
bonds, Bank Millennium analysts wrote in a note.
The zloty was 0.1% weaker at 4.3510 per euro.
"The zloty still remains and will remain under pressure from
sellers in the coming days. The EUR/PLN exchange rate fluctuates
around the level of 4.35 and in the next few sessions it may, in
our opinion, test a technical barrier located two cents higher,"
Bank Millennium said.
CEE SNAPSHOT AT
MARKET 1005
S CET
CURRENCIE
S
Latest Previo Daily Change
us
trade close change in 2024
EURCZK Czech 0
EURHUF Hungary 00
EURPLN Polish EURRON Romania EURRSD Serbian 00
Note: calculated from 1800 CET
daily
change
Latest Previo Daily Change
us
close change in 2024
.PX Prague 1647.72 1647.7 +0.00% +16.53
200 %
.BUX Budapes 74512.97 74263. +0.34% +22.92
t 78 %
.WIG20 Warsaw 5
.BETI Buchare 73 %
Spread Daily
vs Bund change
in
Czech spread
Republi
c
CZ2YT= CZ5YT= CZ10YT Poland
PL2YT= PL5YT= PL10YT FORWARD RATE
AGREEMENTS
3x6 6x9 9x12 3M
interba
nk
Czech Hungary Poland Note: are for ask
FRA prices
quotes
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(Editing by Mark Heinrich)