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CEE MARKETS-Currencies hold tight as markets eye US election
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CEE MARKETS-Currencies hold tight as markets eye US election
Nov 3, 2024 12:19 PM

By Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk and Anita Komuves

WARSAW/BUDAPEST, Oct 28 (Reuters) - The Hungarian forint

and Polish zloty were hovering around recent lows on Monday amid

uncertainty about the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, while

Czech markets were closed for a public holiday.

With no major events planned in central Europe in the first

half of the week, traders were focusing on political news from

the U.S.

"This is not a story about the forint. The entire emerging

market is under pressure as the U.S. presidential election is

approaching - that is a huge question mark," a Budapest-based

trader said.

"I do not expect a big strengthening from the forint, but it

won't get too weak either. I think it will keep trading between

400 and 410, as market sentiment is for the time being driven by

the U.S. ... election and the uncertainty it brings."

Hungary's forint was unchanged at 404.1 per euro

at 0805 GMT.

Standard and Poor's affirmed Hungary's credit rating on

Friday, but such a decision was already priced in, the trader

added.

The U.S. dollar is headed for its biggest monthly gain since

April 2022 in November thanks to solid data from the American

economy, as investors no longer expect a 50-basis-point rate cut

from the Federal Reserve.

It was also supported by anticipation that Donald Trump

could win a second term as U.S. president, as his tax and tariff

policies are considered inflationary, which markets anticipate

would keep U.S. rates high and hit trading partner currencies.

Markets are awaiting data from the region in the second half

of the week, with flash GDP for the third quarter in the Czech

Republic and Hungary to be published on Wednesday and PMI

surveys expected on Friday.

Investors will also be watching flash CPI data from Poland

on Thursday as well as a series of data from core markets,

including the U.S. payrolls report.

In Poland, the government is due to discuss amendments to

the 2024 budget on Tuesday, which may put pressure on domestic

bonds, Bank Millennium analysts wrote in a note.

The zloty was 0.1% weaker at 4.3510 per euro.

"The zloty still remains and will remain under pressure from

sellers in the coming days. The EUR/PLN exchange rate fluctuates

around the level of 4.35 and in the next few sessions it may, in

our opinion, test a technical barrier located two cents higher,"

Bank Millennium said.

CEE SNAPSHOT AT

MARKET 1005

S CET

CURRENCIE

S

Latest Previo Daily Change

us

trade close change in 2024

EURCZK Czech 0

EURHUF Hungary 00

EURPLN Polish EURRON Romania EURRSD Serbian 00

Note: calculated from 1800 CET

daily

change

Latest Previo Daily Change

us

close change in 2024

.PX Prague 1647.72 1647.7 +0.00% +16.53

200 %

.BUX Budapes 74512.97 74263. +0.34% +22.92

t 78 %

.WIG20 Warsaw 5

.BETI Buchare 73 %

Spread Daily

vs Bund change

in

Czech spread

Republi

c

CZ2YT= CZ5YT= CZ10YT Poland

PL2YT= PL5YT= PL10YT FORWARD RATE

AGREEMENTS

3x6 6x9 9x12 3M

interba

nk

Czech Hungary Poland Note: are for ask

FRA prices

quotes

*********************************************

*****************

(Editing by Mark Heinrich)

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