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CEE MARKETS-Forint hovers at 18-month low as FX looks to reverse losses
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CEE MARKETS-Forint hovers at 18-month low as FX looks to reverse losses
Oct 7, 2024 3:34 AM

PRAGUE, Oct 7 (Reuters) - The Hungarian forint hovered

at an 18-month low on Monday, the Czech crown sat off a

two-month low and the Polish zloty eased for a ninth consecutive

session, as dollar strength stayed a drag on central Europe's

currencies.

The region has been impacted in the past week by Middle East

tensions cutting into risk appetite. On Friday, a U.S. jobs

report pointed to a resilient economy and spurred markets to

reduce bets of outsized Federal Reserve rate cuts, leaving

central Europe once again under pressure from the dollar on

Monday.

The crown and forint have been the hardest hit, losing more

than 2% and 1%, respectively, in the past two weeks, in the wake

of extended interest-rate cutting cycles by the Czech and

Hungarian central banks.

The forint had fallen by 0.1% to 401.80 to the

euro by 0953 GMT on Monday, off a low of 402.20, as it sat on

the weak side of the big psychological level of 400 for a fourth

consecutive session.

"In the morning, there was a ray of hope the forint could

firm in a correction, but then everything started to weaken

again," a Budapest trader said.

"But there is very little activity in the market, and we see

a continuous, slow weakening... the forint's rate is determined

by the international mood these days."

The crown also lost 0.1%, to 25.354 per euro, and

was around its lowest levels since the beginning of August.

The zloty dropped to 4.323 to the euro to touch a

three-week low as it has fallen out of a long-held range between

4.25-4.30 in which it had sat since mid-August. The zloty had

been trading at four-year highs in July.

"We will look for signs of calm," ING said. "Rate

differentials remain at a record high after last week across the

board and central bank hawkishness should help erase some losses

later."

Despite continued interest rate cuts, Hungarian and Czech

central bankers have said they will be cautious about further

easing. At the same time, Polish and Romanian central banks

stayed on pause at meetings last week.

Investors will turn their focus to upcoming inflation

prints, in both central Europe and the United States, to gauge

the rate outlook.

"CE3 currencies are being buffeted around by global risk

sentiment," Commerzbank said in a note.

"Which way they will move this week is impossible to

predict. What one might say, though, is that the currencies are

primed for a rebound as soon as global tensions ease and risk

assets rally."

CEE SNAPSHOT AT

MARKETS 1153

CET

CURRENCIES

Latest Previo Daily Change

us

trade close change in 2024

Czech 0

Hungary 00

Polish Romania Serbian 00

Note: calculated from 1800 CET

daily

change

Latest Previo Daily Change

us

close change in 2024

Prague 1590.39 1591.7 -0.08% +12.47

300 %

Budapes 73643.29 73411. +0.32% +21.48

t 75 %

Warsaw 3

Buchare 17464.86 17459. +0.03% +13.62

st 75 %

Spread Daily

vs Bund change

in

Czech spread

Republi

c

Poland

FORWARD RATE

AGREEMENTS

3x6 6x9 9x12 3M

interba

nk

Czech Hungary Poland Note: are for ask prices

FRA

quotes

************************************************

**************

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