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CEE MARKETS-Zloty stays near highs, crown retreats to lows
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CEE MARKETS-Zloty stays near highs, crown retreats to lows
Jul 15, 2024 4:23 AM

PRAGUE, July 15 (Reuters) - Central Europe's currencies

mostly edged higher on Monday, with Poland's zloty close to

multi-year highs as markets assessed the weekend assassination

attempt on Donald Trump and looked forward to a European Central

Bank meeting this week.

The Czech crown lagged and again retreated to a fresh

three-month low, where it has sat since lower-than-expected

inflation figures last week increased bets on faster interest

rate cuts than previously expected.

Markets saw a muted reaction following the shooting attack

on Trump, a U.S. presidential candidate and former president, on

Saturday as investors considered whether it would increase his

chances of an election victory, which supported riskier assets.

The zloty moved 0.1% higher to 4.2505 to the euro,

near a four-year high on the strong side of the 4.25 level hit

in May.

Bank Millennium analysts said stronger movement could come

just before the ECB's rate meeting on Thursday, when

policymakers were expected to hold fire before continuing with

more interest rate cuts later this year.

"The beginning of this week may therefore bring about the

continuation of summer stagnation, although geopolitical factors

may be a potential source of volatility. In particular in the

United States after the failed assassination attempt on (Donald)

Trump," the bank said in a note.

"However, in our opinion, the situation on the U.S.

political scene should not generate strong movements on

markets."

Hungary's forint rose by 0.2% to 391.45 per euro,

following four consecutive weekly gains amid better risk

sentiment.

The crown, though, dropped 0.2% to 25.40 to the

euro, touching a session low of 24.429, its weakest since April.

CSOB said markets would watch for central banker comments

leading up to the bank's Aug. 1 policy meeting, where it may

slow its rate-cutting pace, with CSOB's analysts saying comments

so far since June inflation data have been on the hawkish side.

ING also said central bankers may look to counter dovish

market bets.

"Every currency in the CEE region is focusing on different

drivers these days," ING said. "EUR/CZK remains a rates play in

our view, and central bankers' pushback of dovish bets could

come into play this week."

CEE SNAPSHOT AT

MARKETS 1235

CET

CURRENCIES

Latest Previo Daily Change

us

trade close change in 2024

Czech 0

Hungary 00

Polish Romania Serbian 00

Note: calcula 1800 CET

daily ted

change from

Latest Previo Daily Change

us

close change in 2024

Prague 1593.36 1590.4 +0.19% +12.68

000 %

Budapes 72346.02 72253. +0.13% +19.34

t 66 %

Warsaw 9

Buchare 18528.74 18507. +0.12% +20.54

st 05 %

Spread Daily

vs Bund change

in

Czech spread

Republi

c

0

Poland

0

0

0

FORWARD RATE

AGREEMENTS

3x6 6x9 9x12 3M

interba

nk

Czech Hungary Poland Note: are for

FRA ask

quotes prices

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