* Global tech stocks have rough start to July after strong
rally
* US Philadelphia semiconductor index down nearly 20% from
June record
* China's Moonshot AI model intensifies doubts over returns
on US AI spending
* Alphabet, Tesla, Intel ( INTC ) scheduled to report earnings next
week
* Options market shows dip-buying activity
By Johann M Cherian and Saqib Iqbal Ahmed
July 17 (Reuters) - A selloff of the biggest winners of the
recent stock-market rally, such as high-flying chip stocks, is
sparking fresh concerns about the sustainability of the
AI-driven surge and whether investors have overextended
themselves.
Jitters in semiconductor stocks were felt from Seoul to
Europe as investors pulled back from AI-exposed stocks and
so-called momentum names that had powered portfolio returns
through much of this year.
The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index is down about
9% this week, on pace for its largest weekly fall in over a
year. The index was down nearly 20% from its late June all-time
high, a move that would indicate it has been in a bear market.
"The pullback reflects profit-taking and rising scrutiny of
AI capex sustainability," said Toni Meadows, head of investment
at BRI Wealth Management. "Valuations in semiconductor stocks
had priced near-perfect demand, for what has been a cyclical
area in the past, so was always going to leave stocks vulnerable
at some point in what has been a rapid rise."
The chip index remains up more than 60% for the year.
CHINESE STARTUP TURNS FOCUS TO AI SPENDING
Analysts have highlighted several reasons for this month's
sharp reversal.
Chinese AI startup Moonshot unveiled Kimi K3, a 2.8
trillion-parameter model that it said is the world's largest
open-weight AI system, rekindling investor scrutiny of the pace
of potential returns from hefty AI investments by U.S. tech
companies.
A report on Thursday suggested Alphabet's Google is
months behind schedule on the release of Gemini 3.5 Pro, its
most powerful flagship AI model.
Traders have faced a volatile start to July: South Korea's
KOSPI showed it was in a bear market last week despite being up
nearly 62% for the year, Japan's Nikkei fell into correction
territory on Friday, and Europe's tech sector is among this
week's top losers after its biggest quarterly jump since 2001 in
June.
After outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 by more
than two-to-one this year, the S&P 500 Momentum Index
, which tracks S&P 500 stocks with consistent strong
performance, has pulled back 10% in July, compared to a 0.8%
drop in the broader market.
This happened despite strong forecasts from the world's largest
chip manufacturer, Taiwan's TSMC and European
semiconductor equipment maker ASML.
Some semiconductor exchange-traded funds have recorded
steeper drawdowns. The Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
had slumped 57% from its late-June peak as of Friday
morning, although it remained up over 200% on the year.
LEVERAGE WORRIES
The sector weakness raised concerns about investors being
overextended or highly leveraged.
Tony Pasquariello, head of hedge fund coverage at Goldman
Sachs, said in a note to clients that leverage has built up
across the marketplace, seen for example in a rise in retail
margin, the assets under management of levered ETFs and the
volume in short-dated options.
Large hedge funds that typically use leverage to take bigger
swings at the markets to boost returns have in recent weeks
reduced their exposure to top AI infrastructure players,
according to executives at banks that cater to hedge funds.
"People got way overextended on these names," said Walter
Todd, chief investment officer at Greenwood Capital in South
Carolina. "There are a lot of people under the impression over
the last couple of months that these stocks only go up. And if
they borrowed money to buy the positions, then they (could be)
getting called out of them."
Options traders seemed more focused on buying the dip and
rotating into less crowded corners of the market than on
retreating from stocks altogether.
"Investors have generally been rotating rather than broadly
reducing risk," Chris Murphy, co-head of derivative strategy at
Susquehanna Financial Group, said, noting that the activity was
in line with trends seen over the past couple of weeks.
HARD HIT
On Friday, Nvidia ( NVDA ) shares were 1.6% lower, while
Advanced Micro Devices ( AMD ) slid 3.2% and Applied Materials ( AMAT )
fell 4.8%. Memory chip darlings Micron and
SanDisk ( SNDK ) erased early losses to trade slightly higher.
SpaceX dropped 4.6%, as a last-second abort of
Starship's 13th flight test piled more pressure after the stock
slipped below the $135 IPO price this week.
SK Hynix's ( SKHY ) U.S.-listed shares briefly
dropped below their offering price, before reversing losses to
trade 2% higher.
The focus now shifts to earnings reports from two of Wall
Street's Magnificent Seven. Alphabet and Tesla
are scheduled to announce quarterly earnings next week,
along with semiconductor company Intel ( INTC ).