Currency and bond markets are in focus with the rupee inching higher.

Share Market Live

NSE

At its worse, the rupee had fallen about 3 percent since February 24 when the war began, while bond yields have risen by 20 bps. CNBC-TV18 polled the ten top bank treasuries in the country and here are the results:

When asked how much can the rupee fall? A majority of 50 percent felt rupee can touch 80 to the dollar. But 30 percent also felt that RBI has reserves and it won't allow much depreciation beyond 77.50.

Market is pricing in the fact that import will shoot up due to higher crude prices and exports will fall given disruption to trade. But the pressures are likely to ease in the second half. So when asked, what's the average cost of the dollar for 2022? Bulk of them said 77 rupees. Only 20 percent expected the average to be higher.

As for bonds, the RBI's CPI calculation has to be revised higher and the massive government borrowing program also starts in April. So 40 percent expect 7.3 percent as the high on the 10-year but a good 50 percent expect bond yields to spike even more, but they expect it to fall in the second half.

When asked, what's the average bond yield for full year? Most said average would be from 7-7.1 percent. They added that for companies the cost of loans won't rise much because government is the only big borrower.

First Published:Mar 9, 2022 4:35 PM IST