(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a
columnist for Reuters.)
By Jamie McGeever
ORLANDO, Florida, Aug 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy
seems to be chugging along fairly smoothly, if a little too
slowly for some observers' liking. Under the bonnet, however,
the picture is more worrisome, and the risk of engine
malfunction is rising.
Technology's role in the U.S. economy has never been
greater, and artificial intelligence could deliver a historic
productivity boom. But return on the huge investment being made
on that bet could take years to materialize. What's more, an
unbalanced economy may not be desirable in the long term, as it
can lead to poor investment and policy decisions.
Below are five charts that indicate the foundations of the
resilient U.S. economy and booming stock market may be much
shakier than they appear, especially if AI- and tech-related
spending, investment and optimism are stripped out.
INVESTMENT
Inflation-adjusted investment in 'AI-sensitive' sectors of
the economy since the end of 2019 has risen 53%, notes Troy
Ludtka, senior U.S. economist at SMBC Nikko Securities.
Investment elsewhere has inched up just 0.3%.
CONTRIBUTION TO GDP
Relatedly, the contribution of software and IT equipment
capex to U.S. GDP has never been higher, according to analysts
at BlackRock. Aggregate capex in all other areas of the economy,
however, actually fell in the first half of this year - a rare
occurrence.
CONSUMER SPENDING
Meanwhile, personal consumption expenditures are slowing
sharply, a worrying sign given that the consumer accounts for
around 70% of total U.S. GDP. Personal consumption expenditures
in the second quarter grew by only 0.9%, the slowest pace since
the pandemic. And in real terms, consumer spending has
completely flat-lined in the first half of the year.
CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES
Corporate bankruptcies in July were the highest for a single
month since July 2020, according to S&P Global Market
Intelligence. Even more alarming, the tally of year-to-date
bankruptcy filings through the end of July was the highest for
this seven-month period since 2010. Nearly a third of this
year's bankruptcies were in the consumer discretionary and
industrial sectors.
STOCK MARKET CONCENTRATION
Finally, the concentration on Wall Street has been widely
discussed, but the levels continue to be eye-popping. One stock,
chipmaker Nvidia, accounts for 8% of the benchmark S&P 500's
entire market cap. That's a record for a single name.
And the top 10 stocks, most of which are Big Tech megacaps,
make up 40% of the index's market cap and 30% of all earnings.
These are also record levels.
The more Wall Street - and even global markets - rely on the
revenue, earnings and profitability of a set of companies that
can be counted on two hands, the bigger the potential mess could
be if the trends driving these companies' performance lose
momentum.
(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a
columnist for Reuters)
(Editing by Bernadette Baum)