The consumption sector will see an uptick as the consumption level will come back in the next couple of quarters, but whether it is going to this quarter or next quarter is a question of timing, said S Subramanian, managing director of institutional equities, and Chirag Negandhi, the joint managing director and co-CEO at Axis Capital.
“There are two important elements. The consumption level will take a couple of quarters to come back but in terms of auto and all, I think the stock prices have completely bottomed out. So we are contrarian buys on auto as a sector but the consumption slowdown as you said is expected to pick up after a couple of weeks," said Subramanian.
"Our broad strategy is that – it is a broader market move up with specific focus given that the government is going to focus a lot more on jobs, it is going to be an investment-led theme. Therefore, a lot of investment led companies and banks that cater to the broad lending is going to see a big positive element in this next five years of Modi government,” he added.
Subramanian further said the Reserve Bank of India's measures announced on Friday related to non-banking financial companies was the first step towards resolving the financial sector mess. “I think that the government will do something and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will do something to ensure that the financial sector mess is behind us soon and to do that, they have to also make sure that the rules are in place. It is not just that writing a cheque and getting them out of the thing – the markets have to believe for this uptick to continue that there is a rule-based help coming out."
Speaking about corporate profit to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio, Negandhi said, “The work is cut-out for this government and therefore there is a reason to believe that if not in this quarter, two quarters out that the earnings cycle will bottom out. What we are saying here and our entire list of corporates also signifies that is our theme is that we want to see the shift away from the farm fields into the infrastructure projects and into the factory floor and as that plays out."
Negandhi said he believes that the GDP growth also will start picking up after Q1 and the earnings will catch up and therefore this is a good time for investors to come in to meet the companies to understand the earnings momentum and then to take their own view about stock specific calls.