Shares of Bajaj Finance fell 5.6 percent to its 52-week low of Rs 2,083 on BSE after it announced the business impact of COVID-19 in the March FY20 quarter. During Q4, the company acquired 1.9 million new customers to 42.6 million. However, it added that had it not been for lockdown, the company could have added another 350,000 more customers taking the total new customer count to 2.25 million for Q4.
It also announced that the new loans booked during Q4FY20 were 6 million as compared to 5.8 million in Q4FY19. The company lost about 1 million accounts due to the nationwide lockdown.
Meanwhile, assets under management grew from Rs 1,15,888 crore in the previous year to Rs 1,47,500 crore as of March 31, 2020. The company was well on course to deliver an AUM of over Rs 1,52,000 crore until the lockdown was announced, the BSE filing said.
"While COVID-19 crisis by far seems the most brutal, we are confident that the company’s entrepreneurial culture and distinctive business strategy will help it navigate this once in a lifetime tough and challenging period," the company said.
It also lists 3 likely business scenarios for this crisis. The first scenario is that lockdown opens on April 14, 2020. In this scenario, it foresees business in April to be 20 percent of planned volumes, May at 60 percent and gradually return to 100 percent by September. The impact of demand is likely to be transient and the NBFC is likely to gain some of the lost volumes in the second half of the year albeit marginally.
The second scenario is that lockdown opens on April 30, 2020. In this scenario, it foresees business in April to be nil, May to run at 30 percent of the planned volumes, June at 70 percent and return to 100 percent by October. The impact on demand, however, is likely to be material, it said, adding that it is not likely to gain any of the lockdown lost sales volume.
The third scenario is that lockdown goes all the way to 49 days and opens on May 15, 2020. In this scenario, it foresees business in April will be zero, May will be at 20 percent of the planned volumes, June at 50 percent and return to 100 percent only by Q4FY21.
Despite the cautious outlook by the company, brokerages remained bullish on the stock. Kotak Securities upgraded the stock to 'buy' from 'sell' but cut its target price to Rs 2,700 from Rs 3,850 earlier.
"We believe that increased risk to Bajaj Finance’s consumer and SME book from the current lockdown and on the back of an economic slowdown is priced in, post the recent sharp stock correction," it stated in a recent report.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley is also 'overweight' on the stock but cut its target to Rs 2,810 per share from Rs 3,550 earlier.