West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light crude oil surged 0.3% past $81 per barrel on Thursday, eyeing its highest close since late April and a potential third consecutive session of gains, as lower-than-expected U.S. inventories spurred market concerns.

What Happened: Commercial crude oil stocks in the U.S. fell by 2.547 million barrels for the week ending June 14, surpassing market expectations of a 2 million barrel decline, according to the EIA Petroleum Status Report.

At 457.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% below the five-year average for this time of year. 

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.3 million barrels, contrary to the expected rise of 1.10 million barrels, and are about 1% below the five-year average.

Distillate stockpiles, including diesel and heating oil, dropped by 1.726 million barrels against the consensus of a 1 million barrel increase. These stockpiles are now about 8% below the five-year average.

Why It Matters: The recent data indicate a more significant than expected decline in crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories, suggesting that current supply is not meeting demand adequately.

This has pushed WTI prices above the critical $80 threshold as the summer season approaches — a period typically characterized by increased consumption of oil-related products.

Rising oil prices could have substantial implications for inflation and political dynamics ahead of the November presidential elections.

The May Consumer Price Index report showed a cooler-than-expected inflation rate, partly due to a 3.6% month-over-month drop in the gasoline index, marking the largest monthly decline since November 2023.

A resurgence in oil prices could potentially slow or even halt recent disinflation trends.

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Moreover, escalating oil prices challenge the Biden administration as the presidential election nears. High gasoline costs are particularly burdensome for households ahead of the travel season.

Earlier this week, the Biden administration hinted at readiness to release more oil from the strategic stockpile to curb any price surges.

Amos Hochstein, President Joe Biden's top energy adviser, told the Financial Times that prices at the pump were “still too high for many Americans” and expressed a desire to see them “cut down a little bit further.”

As of June 7, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) stood at 370.53 million barrels, a slight recovery from last year’s low of 346.76 million barrels but significantly below the over 600 million barrels prior to the Biden administration’s mandated sales in recent years.

Market Reactions: Energy stocks as tracked by the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ( XLE ) rose more than 1.5%, heading for their best session of the month and outperforming all other sectors on Thursday.

Leading the gains among large-cap energy stocks were Hess Corp ( HES ) , Schlumberger NV ( SLB ) , Marathon Petroleum Corp ( MPC ) , and Exxon Mobil Corp ( XOM ) , with respective increases of 2.4%, 2%, 1.9%, and 1.9%, respectively.

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