06:00 AM EDT, 08/29/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Crude oil prices remain caught between a potential tightening of sanctions and rising oil production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers, Commerzbank said in a Friday note.

The focus next week is expected to be on rising supply as news agencies publish survey-based production estimates for OPEC countries in August. OPEC production is likely to have risen significantly, threatening to create a significant supply surplus in the second half of 2025, the bank noted.

The extent of the oversupply will also depend on developments in global oil demand. Though the 2025 demand growth outlook was revised downwards in the first half, it have recently stabilized. If sentiment indicators released in the coming days for China, Europe and the U.S. improve more strongly than expected, the global demand outlook would also improve, Commerzbank said.

Meanwhile, brisk travel activity over the upcoming U.S. Labor Day weekend could boost demand, but the summer driving season in the U.S. comes to an end with Labor Day on Monday, the bank said.