The crude oil prices are on the rise once again since last week thanks to escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia. Prices have been surging on fears of conflict and supply disruption in the Middle East after the January 3 drone strike in Baghdad that killed Iranian general Qassem Soleimani.
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The region accounts for nearly half of the world's oil production, while a fifth of the world's oil shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iraq called on the US and other foreign troops to leave the country resulting in US President Donald Trump threatening to impose sanctions on Iraq, the second-largest producer among the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), if US troops were forced to withdraw from the region.
Trump also said that the United States would retaliate against Iran if Tehran were to strike back after the killing.
Crude oil prices also gained support from higher compliance among the Opec members on meeting production quota curbs aimed at reducing supply.
Further, improvement in the trade relations between the United States and China eased down demand worries and supported oil prices.
Going ahead, analysts expect the military conflict in the Middle-East has the potential to increase the crude oil price beyond $100 per barrel.
"Couple of worst-case scenarios that we need to keep in mind... a full-blown war, a military conflict directly in the Middle-East which has the potential to drag in all the regional governments as well. It has the potential to spike prices beyond $100 per barrel," said Vandana Hari, Founder and CEO, Vanda Insights.
Brent oil prices surged 5.7 percent in December while it rallied 8.6 percent for the October-December quarter. The WTI crude gained 11 percent in December and 13 percent in the quarter.
In the year 2019, WTI oil prices gained over 34 percent after falling 24 percent in the year 2018.
The past 30 years have been very volatile for oil prices.
The year 1999 saw oil prices surging 112.19 percent and further adding 3.73 percent in the next year.
There were 5 years when oil prices rose more than 50 percent. In the year 2009, prices surged 78 percent. The prices gained 57.68 percent and 56.36 percent in 2007 and 2002 respectively.
Among major declines, a steep fall of 53.52 percent was seen in the year 2008 and then 45.55 percent fall in 2014 and 30.70 percent in 2015. Prices then fell 24.84 percent in 2018.
Oil prices changed marginally in the years 1988, 1992, 2000 and 2003.