06:07 AM EDT, 03/11/2026 (MT Newswires) -- The U.S. Energy Information Administration in its Short-Term Energy Outlook released Tuesday said it expects the Brent oil price to remain above US$95/barrel over the next two months, before falling below $80/barrel in the third quarter about $70/barrel by the end of 2026.

Prices are forecast to average $64/barrel in 2027, the EIA said. The forecasts are highly dependent on the agency's assumptions of both the duration of the Middle East conflict and resulting outages in oil production.

U.S. crude oil production oil is expected to average 13.6 million barrels per day in 2026 and 13.8 million b/d in 2027, with higher oil prices leading to more output, the EIA said. The 2027 forecast is 0.5 million b/d higher than the previous forecast.

In its modeling, the EIA made the assumption that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz will cause Middle East oil production to drop in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, U.S. natural gas prices are seen to be relatively unaffected by reduced liquefied natural gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which has led to higher natural gas prices in Europe and Asia, the EIA noted.

The EIA forecast Henry Hub gas spot prices to average about $3.80/million British thermal units in 2026, 13% less than last month's forecast. In 2027, Henry Hub is expected to average nearly $3.90/MMBtu, 12% lower than the previous forecast.

In lowering the 2026 forecast, the EIA cited milder-than-forecast temperatures in February that left more natural gas in storage than previously expected. Meanwhile, the lower 2027 forecast mostly reflect more associated natural gas production due to higher oil production.