05:47 AM EDT, 08/13/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The growth of the global oil supply will vastly surpass demand growth, resulting in a significant decline in oil prices late this year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its August Short-Term Energy Outlook released on Tuesday.

The EIA expects the Brent crude oil spot price to average less than US$60/barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025, the first quarter with average prices that low since 2020.

The agency forecast a Brent crude price of US$67/b in 2025 and US$51/b in 2026, down from US$81 in 2024. Retail gasoline price is projected at US$3.10/gallon in 2025 and US$2.90/gallon in 2026, down from US$3.30 in 2024.

This comes after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers announced that it is unwinding its oil production cuts by September, a year ahead of schedule. For the first time since the EIA began publishing an OPEC+ production forecast in 2023, most of the growth in global oil production is seen to come from OPEC+ countries.

Lower oil prices are expected to lead to lower U.S. retail prices for gasoline and diesel and to pull domestic oil production down from record highs in 2025, the EIA said.