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EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil's real jumps 1% in upbeat Latam FX trade; US elections eyed
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EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil's real jumps 1% in upbeat Latam FX trade; US elections eyed
Nov 4, 2024 12:57 PM

*

Fiscal measures to be announced this week- Brazil's FM

*

Sheinbaum chides top court ahead of judicial reform

decision

*

Rate decisions out of Brazil, Peru due later in the week

*

MSCI Latam stocks index up 1.7%, FX up 0.6%

(Updated at 3 p.m. EST)

By Johann M Cherian and Ankika Biswas

Nov 4 (Reuters) - Brazil's real was the top gainer among

Latin American currencies on Monday, with investors gearing up

for a busy week including economic data, monetary policy

decisions by central banks in the region and the U.S.

presidential election.

MSCI's index tracking currencies in the region

climbed 0.6%, with markets preparing for a

number of events out of the world's largest economy - including

a Federal Reserve monetary policy decision later this week.

Brazil's real strengthened 1.6% against the dollar,

set to snap a six-day losing streak. Finance Minister Fernando

Haddad said measures to support the fiscal framework could be

announced this week, adding that the government is in the final

stages of preparation.

The currency has lost over 16% so far this year, despite the

Brazilian central bank's recent hawkish pivot, on expectations

that the government's fiscal spending will stoke inflation and

thwart the regulator's goal of lowering price pressures.

Investors also awaited the country's central bank decision

on Wednesday. Brazilian private sector economists have increased

inflation expectations for this year and next, and raised their

interest-rate projection for the end of 2025.

Brazil's real and Colombia's peso, up 0.5%,

were also buoyed by a 3% jump in oil prices.

Mexico's peso appreciated by 0.7%. One-week implied

options volatility on the dollar versus the peso hit

its highest level since April 2020.

However, the peso is among underperformers in the region,

hurt by Republican candidate Donald Trump's rhetoric, among

other factors. He has threatened to lift tariffs on trade

partners, including a 200% surcharge on auto imports from

Mexico, and to renegotiate the USMCA free trade deal.

Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris were scrambling

for an edge in the last full day before the U.S. election.

However, the winner might not be known for days.

"The risk of high volatility after the U.S. election has

heightened the discussion around Banxico's conditions to

intervene in the currency market," Citi analysts noted.

"The intervention could come in the form of currency hedges

... we will need to see more volatility now, compared to this

year's domestic elections, in the currency market before Banxico

would act on a technical level."

Meanwhile, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum criticized

the country's Supreme Court for overstepping its authority as it

weighs whether to deem part of a recently enacted judicial

reform unconstitutional.

The judicial reform has spooked markets and drawn criticism

from Mexico's largest trade partner, the United States.

Copper producer Chile's peso rose 0.7% after prices

of the red metal climbed to a two-week high.

However, Chile's finance minister said the country will cut

its economic growth forecast after the IMACEC economic activity

index was well below expectations for September.

Peru's sol was flat ahead of the country's

interest-rate decision on Thursday.

On the equities front, a gauge tracking regional bourses

added nearly 2%, with the main indexes of Brazil

, Argentina and Chile up over 1% each.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

Equities Latest Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets 1129.14 0.61

MSCI LatAm 2124.93 1.65

Brazil Bovespa 130242.29 1.66

Mexico IPC 50838.26 0.43

Chile IPSA 6630.22 1.22

Argentina Merval 1908916.6 1.545

Colombia COLCAP 1352.8 -0.42

Currencies Latest Daily % change

Brazil real 5.773 1.62

Mexico peso 20.125 0.7

Chile peso 954.17 0.69

Colombia peso 4414 0.48

Peru sol 3.772 0.03

Argentina peso (interbank) 992.5 -0.20

Argentina peso (parallel) 1150 3.48

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