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Weak dollar boosts Latam FX, stocks
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Traders price in more US rate cuts
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Brazil's industrial output up less-than-expected in March
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Panama presidential election on Sunday
(Updated at 1848 GMT)
By Sruthi Shankar and Johann M Cherian
May 3 (Reuters) - Most Latin American currencies climbed
on Friday, with the Brazilian real touching a three-week high
versus the dollar after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data
raised expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts starting as early
as September.
The real jumped 0.9% to 5.06 per dollar, its
strongest level since April 11. Other currencies in the region
also firmed, with a broader gauge set for its
second weekly gains.
The dollar weakened, as traders priced in two U.S.
interest rate cuts of 25 basis points this year after data
showed U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in April and
annual wage gains cooled.
Emerging market currencies have come under pressure this
year as several countries including Brazil, Chile and Mexico
kickstarted rate-cutting cycles early to spur their economies
even as the Fed kept rates elevated due to sticky U.S. inflation
and resilience in the world's largest economy.
On the day, Brazil's industrial production rose 0.9% in
March, marginally missing the 1% growth economists polled by
Reuters were expecting.
Andres Abadia, chief latam economist at Pantheon
Macroeconomics called it a solid report.
"Survey data have been improving in recent quarters ...
rising consumer spending, helped by lower interest rates and
tame inflation, will continue to drive the modest industrial
recovery this year," Abadia added.
Brazil's Copom bank is set to meet next week, with
economists split over the size of a likely rate cut.
A weaker greenback also sparked a rebound in copper prices,
further supporting gains in currencies of producers of the red
metal in the region: Chile and Peru.
Meanwhile, a Reuters poll showed foreign exchange experts
expect a small depreciation in the Mexican peso in the
medium term as the country navigates between a relatively firm
economy on one side and some political doubts on the other. On
the day, the peso inched up 0.2%.
Stock markets in the region also climbed with indexes in
Brazil, Mexico and Colombia up between
0.3% and 1.1%. The Latam MSCI stocks index was
also on track for weekly gains of 1.1%.
Investors will keep an eye on Sunday's presidential election
in Panama, where eight candidates are on the ballot, and polls
show mixed rankings among the five frontrunners.
The Central American country's government rebuked Fitch
Ratings late in March after it cut Panama's sovereign bonds to
speculative grade, or junk status. Panama is at risk of losing
the coveted investment grade following concerns over its fiscal
and governance challenges that have been aggravated by the
closure of the country's largest mine.
Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:
Latin American market
prices from Reuters
Stock indexes Latest Daily %
change
MSCI Emerging Markets 1062.77 0.94
MSCI LatAm 2491.90 1.02
Brazil Bovespa 128623.20 1.18
Mexico IPC 57045.64 0.65
Chile IPSA 6558.74 0.93
Argentina MerVal 1430075.54 4.41
Colombia COLCAP 1382.74 0.29
Currencies Latest Daily %
change
Brazil real 5.0666 0.90
Mexico peso 16.9583 0.04
Chile peso 938.2 0.61
Colombia peso 3906.5 -0.22
Peru sol 3.718 0.02
Argentina peso 878.5000 0.00
(interbank)
Argentina peso 1020 1.96
(parallel)