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EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil's real scales 3-week high as US jobs data backs Fed cut bets
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EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil's real scales 3-week high as US jobs data backs Fed cut bets
May 3, 2024 12:24 PM

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Weak dollar boosts Latam FX, stocks

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Traders price in more US rate cuts

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Brazil's industrial output up less-than-expected in March

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Panama presidential election on Sunday

(Updated at 1848 GMT)

By Sruthi Shankar and Johann M Cherian

May 3 (Reuters) - Most Latin American currencies climbed

on Friday, with the Brazilian real touching a three-week high

versus the dollar after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data

raised expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts starting as early

as September.

The real jumped 0.9% to 5.06 per dollar, its

strongest level since April 11. Other currencies in the region

also firmed, with a broader gauge set for its

second weekly gains.

The dollar weakened, as traders priced in two U.S.

interest rate cuts of 25 basis points this year after data

showed U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in April and

annual wage gains cooled.

Emerging market currencies have come under pressure this

year as several countries including Brazil, Chile and Mexico

kickstarted rate-cutting cycles early to spur their economies

even as the Fed kept rates elevated due to sticky U.S. inflation

and resilience in the world's largest economy.

On the day, Brazil's industrial production rose 0.9% in

March, marginally missing the 1% growth economists polled by

Reuters were expecting.

Andres Abadia, chief latam economist at Pantheon

Macroeconomics called it a solid report.

"Survey data have been improving in recent quarters ...

rising consumer spending, helped by lower interest rates and

tame inflation, will continue to drive the modest industrial

recovery this year," Abadia added.

Brazil's Copom bank is set to meet next week, with

economists split over the size of a likely rate cut.

A weaker greenback also sparked a rebound in copper prices,

further supporting gains in currencies of producers of the red

metal in the region: Chile and Peru.

Meanwhile, a Reuters poll showed foreign exchange experts

expect a small depreciation in the Mexican peso in the

medium term as the country navigates between a relatively firm

economy on one side and some political doubts on the other. On

the day, the peso inched up 0.2%.

Stock markets in the region also climbed with indexes in

Brazil, Mexico and Colombia up between

0.3% and 1.1%. The Latam MSCI stocks index was

also on track for weekly gains of 1.1%.

Investors will keep an eye on Sunday's presidential election

in Panama, where eight candidates are on the ballot, and polls

show mixed rankings among the five frontrunners.

The Central American country's government rebuked Fitch

Ratings late in March after it cut Panama's sovereign bonds to

speculative grade, or junk status. Panama is at risk of losing

the coveted investment grade following concerns over its fiscal

and governance challenges that have been aggravated by the

closure of the country's largest mine.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

Latin American market

prices from Reuters

Stock indexes Latest Daily %

change

MSCI Emerging Markets 1062.77 0.94

MSCI LatAm 2491.90 1.02

Brazil Bovespa 128623.20 1.18

Mexico IPC 57045.64 0.65

Chile IPSA 6558.74 0.93

Argentina MerVal 1430075.54 4.41

Colombia COLCAP 1382.74 0.29

Currencies Latest Daily %

change

Brazil real 5.0666 0.90

Mexico peso 16.9583 0.04

Chile peso 938.2 0.61

Colombia peso 3906.5 -0.22

Peru sol 3.718 0.02

Argentina peso 878.5000 0.00

(interbank)

Argentina peso 1020 1.96

(parallel)

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