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EMERGING MARKETS-LatAm assets rise as softer US inflation cools Fed rate hike bets
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EMERGING MARKETS-LatAm assets rise as softer US inflation cools Fed rate hike bets
Jul 14, 2026 1:25 PM

* LatAm stocks gain 1.3%, FX gain 0.7% to near one-month

highs

* U.S. inflation comes in softer-than-expected

* Rising commodity prices support LatAm equities

(Updates with afternoon trading levels)

By Utkarsh Hathi, Purvi Agarwal and Shashwat Chauhan

July 14 (Reuters) - Most Latin American assets rose on

Tuesday as a softer-than-expected U.S. inflation report weighed

on the dollar, while higher commodity prices supported markets

in the resource-rich region.

Data showed U.S. consumer inflation slowed more than

expected in June, prompting traders to scale back expectations

for a Federal Reserve rate hike later this month. However, the

moderation was not sufficient to take a hike off the table in

2026.

"A summer soft patch in U.S. data could temper expectations

for imminent Fed rate hikes," TD Securities analysts said in a

note.

"We still expect some residual USD strength in Q3 as

positioning normalizes and geopolitical uncertainty helps the

dollar regain some relative haven appeal."

Investors remained wary as the U.S.-Iran conflict threatened

to keep energy prices elevated after the U.S. reinstated a naval

blockade of Iran and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz

remained uncertain. Oil prices rose 2% to a four-week high.

Latin American currencies, among the highest-yielding in

emerging markets, have benefited from carry trade appetite as

rate differentials stay wide. However, central banks in top

economies like Brazil and Mexico have been reducing their

lending rates from historic highs lately.

"Carry is still a theme in Latam, but idiosyncratic risks

have become a more relevant driver for the country selection in

the region," J.P.Morgan analysts said in a note. The brokerage

also upgraded its rating on the Colombian peso to "overweight",

matching its rating on the Mexican and Chilean pesos.

On Tuesday, the Brazilian real gained the most,

rising 1.3% to its highest level in close to a month. Stocks in

the region's largest economy gained 0.4%, with miner Vale

adding 1.7%.

Focus was also on a possible decision regarding U.S. tariffs

on Brazilian imports, which analysts said could come as soon as

this week.

Currencies in Chile and Mexico appreciated

0.8% and 0.5% respectively. Chile's stocks added 0.4%,

tracking copper prices that hit a three-week high.

Mexico's benchmark gained the most, rising 0.9% as

higher copper prices lifted Mexico's Grupo Mexico

by 4%.

Colombia's peso was an outlier, weakening 0.3%, while

its stocks fell 0.5%.

The broader MSCI Latin American currency index

rose 0.7%, while its stocks counterpart

climbed 1.3%.

Latin America's performance stands apart from Asia, where

heavy inflows into AI-aligned stocks have driven this year's

rally.

That same AI exposure, however, makes Asian markets more

susceptible to sharp pullbacks when enthusiasm wanes, a risk

Latin America has largely avoided.

The Argentine peso gained 0.9%. Data showed

Argentina's monthly inflation rate slowed for the third

consecutive month to 1.9% in June, though the 12-month rate

continued to climb.

Meanwhile, Venezuela will tweak its macroeconomic and debt

framework to incorporate the economic impact of last month's

earthquakes, economic adviser Calixto Ortega said on Monday.

Elsewhere in emerging markets, S&P Dow Jones Indices said it

is consulting on re-classifying Poland from "emerging" to a

"developed" market status and Egypt from "emerging" to

"frontier" status.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

Stock indexes Latest Daily % change

MSCI Emerging 1653.78 0.26

Markets

MSCI LatAm 3036.67 1.34

Brazil Bovespa 176455.22 0.41

Mexico IPC 66540.7 0.86

Chile IPSA 10974.57 0.42

Argentina MerVal 3220551.29 -0.46

Colombia COLCAP 2296.15 -0.5

Currencies Latest Daily % change

Brazil real 5.0728 1.25

Mexico peso 17.4285 0.52

Chile peso 925.5 0.75

Colombia peso 3246.34 -0.32

Peru sol 3.3904 0.55

Argentina 1,470.00 0.88

peso

(interbank)

Argentina 1,500.00 1.64

peso

(parallel)

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