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EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX eyes best six-month gain since 2009; focus on US trade deals
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EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX eyes best six-month gain since 2009; focus on US trade deals
Jun 30, 2025 1:59 PM

*

Investors monitor Trump's tax cut bill, trade deals

*

Chile picks Jeannette Jara as incumbent presidential

candidate

*

MSCI Latam FX up 0.9%, stocks 1.7%

(Updates with afternoon trading levels)

By Purvi Agarwal and Shashwat Chauhan

June 30 (Reuters) -

Most Latin American currencies edged higher on Monday as the

dollar weakened, with Brazil's real and the Mexican peso

reaching multi-month highs as investors awaited progress in

trade negotiations between the U.S. and its trade partners ahead

of the July tariff deadline.

MSCI's index tracking Latin American currencies

was last up 0.9%. The index has gained nearly

18% in the six months of 2025, its most since 2009.

The dollar index was pinned at its lowest since March

2022 as investors expected a dovish tilt from the Federal

Reserve and increasing chances that President Donald Trump's tax

cut bill - which is expected to add to the already high U.S.

fiscal debt - will be signed into law.

Investors are also awaiting any trade deals out of the U.S.,

as a July deadline for tariffs looms, and as Canada and the U.S.

are set to resume briefly stalled trade talks.

"Global uncertainty, especially on geopolitical and

commercial issues, has been creating a complex and atypical

environment for Latin America in 2025," BBVA analysts said in a

note.

"This has led to high market volatility, caution from

monetary policy, and broader than normal ranges when forecasting

economic variables."

Most Latin American currencies swung higher in the face

of a globally weaker dollar, with Brazil's real rising

almost 1% to touch its highest level in over eight months.

Financial analysts expect heightened volatility in

trading the real as the local central bank is set to publish the

end-of-month Ptax rate on Monday. The Ptax rate serves as a

reference for settling futures contracts.

Mexico's peso appreciated 0.3% to touch its

highest level since August 2024, on track to register a sixth

month of gains, its longest winning streak since 2023.

Chile's peso also strengthened 0.9%, set for its

sixth successive monthly advance, its longest gaining streak

since 2009.

Chileans overwhelmingly elected Jeannette Jara, the

country's former labor minister, on Sunday to be the incumbent

government's candidate and face off against a field of

right-wing contenders in November's presidential elections.

Emerging market assets have had a good year so far, as

investors looked to move out of U.S. assets due to uncertainty

driven by Trump's tariffs and concerns over the United States'

mounting fiscal debt.

Brazil's real and the Mexican peso are some of the top

performing emerging market currencies so far this year, likely

benefiting from a higher interest rate differential with the

U.S. and a less-than-feared hit from Trump's tariffs.

MSCI's stocks gauge also tracked Wall Street

higher, on pace for its best six-month showing since 2009.

Shares of Argentina's YPF dropped more than 5%

after a U.S. judge ordered Argentina to give up its 51% stake in

the oil and gas company to partially satisfy a $16.1 billion

court judgment.

Markets in Colombia were closed for a public holiday.

Elsewhere in emerging markets, Taiwan's dollar fell

2.5% against the greenback, to its lowest level since early

June, with bank traders pointing to an aggressive intervention

by the central bank to sell the Taiwan dollar at the end of the

second quarter.

HIGHLIGHTS

**

IMF to provide Ukraine with $500 million after review

** Ecuador to receive $1 billion foreign investment linked

to renewable energy

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

MSCI Emerging Markets 1223.25 -0.43

MSCI LatAm 2350.05 1.72

Brazil Bovespa 139084.97 1.62

Mexico IPC 57410.42 0.03

Argentina Merval 1993035.3 -2.354

Chile IPSA 8248.18 0.43

Colombia COLCAP -

-

Brazil real 5.4326 0.95

Mexico peso 18.7574 0.3

Chile peso 931.43 0.87

Colombia peso -

-

Peru sol 3.541 0.23

Argentina peso 1203 -1.16

(interbank)

Argentina peso (parallel) 1195 1.26

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