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Latam FX down 0.8%; stocks slip 2.7%
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U.S. Federal Reserve cuts rates as expected
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Brazilian real hits all-time low of over 6.2/dollar
(Updates after Fed rate decision)
By Shashwat Chauhan and Pranav Kashyap
Dec 18 (Reuters) - Most Latin American currencies
dropped on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve cut interest
rates as expected but signaled a slow pace of rate cuts next
year, with an already sliding Brazilian real tumbling to an
all-time low.
The dollar advanced globally after the Fed cut interest
rates by an expected 25-basis-points and signaled it will slow
the pace at which borrowing costs fall any further given a
relatively stable unemployment rate and little recent
improvement in inflation.
"When you include the forward guidance components, it
was a 'hawkish cut'," said Jack McIntyre, Portfolio Manager for
Brandywine Global.
"The Fed has entered a new phase of monetary policy, the
pause phase. The longer it persists, the more likely the markets
will have to equally price a rate hike versus a rate cut."
U.S. central bankers now project they will make just two
quarter-percentage-point rate reductions by the end of 2025.
Brazil's real plunged 2.2% to an all-time low of
6.2407 per the dollar, with selling pressure accelerating after
the Fed's decision.
In a bid to further stabilize the currency, Brazil's central
bank held spot U.S. dollar auctions for the third consecutive
session on Tuesday and reaffirmed its tough monetary policy
stance.
Brazil's lower house of Congress gave the green light to the
main text of a crucial fiscal bill late on Tuesday, a key
component of the government's proposed fiscal package.
However, lawmakers still need to vote on several amendments
to the main text, along with other related projects. Following
final approval, they would then be voted on by the Senate.
Brazilian assets, from stocks to bonds and its currency,
have found themselves in the crosshairs of investors, who have
been doubtful whether lawmakers would be able to pass the main
part of a fiscal bill aimed at putting government finances on a
more sustainable footing.
"The overall risk premium on Brazil is increasing and that's
clearly getting reflected in the sell-off of longer term bonds
and the real is reacting to the increase in that fiscal risk
premium," said Olga Yangol, managing director, head of emerging
markets research and strategy, Americas - Credit Agricole CIB.
Yangol also agreed that, with fiscal risk premiums
increasing, it could trigger credit rating agencies to put
Brazil under a microscope.
"In the case of Moody's, they were quite optimistic with
respect to Brazil... we could see ratings agencies kind of
revisiting that view," she added.
Mexico's peso dropped 0.5%, extending losses to a
third straight session, in-line with the dollar's strength
around the world.
Mexico's central bank is expected to cut interest rates
by 25 basis points on Thursday.
Colombia's peso shed 1% in light trading. Colombia's
central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by 50-bps
later in the week.
Chile's peso slipped 0.7%. Overnight, Chile's
central bank
cut
its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.0%.
MSCI's index for Latin American currencies
slipped 0.8%, while a gauge for stocks dropped
2.7%.
Brazil's benchmark index was an outlier, falling
2.4% to its lowest level in more than five months as losses in
financials and materials weighed.
Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:
MSCI Emerging Markets 1093.96 0.07
MSCI LatAm 1893.19 -2.68
Brazil Bovespa 121724.45 -2.38
Mexico IPC 50460.52 0.08
Chile IPSA 6731.49 0.02
Argentina Merval 2575861.3 -0.63
8
Colombia COLCAP 1369.23 0.11
Brazil real 6.2407 -2.23
Mexico peso 20.2702 -0.51
Chile peso 993.28 -0.68
Colombia peso 4387.5 -1.02
Peru sol 3.732 -0.04
Argentina peso 1022 -0.10
(interbank)
Argentina peso (parallel) 1185 -1.69