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EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX slip as dollar shines after sticky US inflation data
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EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX slip as dollar shines after sticky US inflation data
Mar 12, 2024 8:26 AM

*

Brazil's inflation tops estimates in February at 0.83%

*

Chile to cut rates to 6.5% at next meeting- poll

*

Argentina fixed-term deposit rate falls to 75% after rate

cut

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Brazil's finmin to appoint Rafael Dubeux to Petrobras

board

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FX off 0.2%, stocks down 0.1%

By Ankika Biswas

March 12 (Reuters) - The index tracking Latin American

currencies slipped on Tuesday against a strong dollar after a

hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation print slightly pushed back

expectations of an early Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

The MSCI index for Latam currencies was down

0.2% at 10:00 a.m. ET. Data showed U.S. consumer prices

increased solidly in February, indicating sticky inflation that

could delay a Fed rate cut largely expected in June.

"With the U.S. economy still overheating, we expect 10-year

Treasury yields to keep trading above 4% this coming quarter

which will exert downward pressure on Latam currencies,

especially since major central banks in the region are now in an

easing cycle," said Joaquin Kritz Lara, chief economist at

Numera Analytics.

Brazil's real, Colombia's peso, Peru's sol

and the Mexican peso dropped between 0.1% and

0.6% against the dollar.

Data showed Brazil's consumer prices rose slightly more than

expected in February, reaching the highest monthly figure in one

year driven by higher education prices.

Brazil's central bank will meet next week to set its

benchmark interest rate, currently at 11.25%, after kicking off

its easing cycle in August with a 50-basis-point rate cut.

The country's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said on

Monday that there was no explanation for keeping the benchmark

rate at the current level apart from the "stubbornness" of

central bank president Roberto Campos Neto.

Meanwhile, a poll of analysts released by Chile's monetary

authority showed the country's central bank is expected to lower

its benchmark rate by 75 basis points to 6.5% at its April

meeting.

"We expect Chile to continue cutting rates aggressively to

stabilize demand, which will narrow the interest rate spread

between the peso and U.S. bonds, increasing the likelihood of

further FX losses, although the extent of the decline depends as

much on external factors," Kritz Lara added.

The Chilean peso has underperformed its Latam peers

so far this year with a near 9% decline.

Further, the fixed-term deposit rate at Argentina's banks

fell to an average 75% from a previous floor of 110%, traders

told Reuters, after the central bank cut the benchmark interest

rate on Monday to 80% from 100% previously.

The Argentine peso last stood at 985 per dollar in

the parallel black market.

The MSCI index for Latam stocks slipped

0.1%, on track for its fourth straight daily decline.

Petrobras gained 2.6% after its recent slide on

an axed dividend. Reuters reported Brazil's Finance Minister

Fernando Haddad is set to appoint Rafael Dubeux to the board of

directors of the state-run oil firm.

Brazilian car rental firm Localiza climbed 2.2%

following a 59.1% increase in its fourth-quarter net profit.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

Stock indexes Latest Daily %

change

MSCI Emerging Markets 1047.52 0.81

MSCI LatAm 2482.53 -0.1

Brazil Bovespa 127000.49 0.7

Mexico IPC 55124.15 0.09

Chile IPSA 6458.67 0.66

Argentina MerVal 0.00 0

Colombia COLCAP 1296.82 -0.11

Currencies Latest Daily %

change

Brazil real 4.9833 -0.10

Mexico peso 16.8300 -0.30

Chile peso 963.9 0.26

Colombia peso 3917.14 -0.08

Peru sol 3.6964 -0.55

Argentina peso (interbank) 848.5000 0.00

Argentina peso (parallel) 985 1.02

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