* LatAm stocks down 0.7%, FX flat
* Survey shows Brazil's Lula widens lead over Flavio
Bolsonaro ahead of presidential vote
* Chile's finance ministry forecasts 3% GDP growth in 2027
and 2028
(Updates with afternoon levels)
By Avinash P and Ragini Mathur
June 10 (Reuters) - Latin American stocks fell on Wednesday
as renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran added to the
economic uncertainty, while investors also monitored the
extremely tight presidential election in Peru and other
political developments across the region.
U.S. President Donald Trump said that Washington would
strike Tehran again if no peace deal is reached, threatening
further escalation after one of the most significant exchanges
of hostilities in two months.
The latest flare-up has added another obstacle to a
potential Middle East peace deal and revived concerns that a
closure of the Strait of Hormuz could drive oil prices higher,
worsen inflation and weigh on global growth.
U.S. consumer inflation rose in May at its fastest pace in
three years. While the reading matched economists' expectations,
it reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep
interest rates steady. Treasury yields edged higher after the
data, while the dollar was little changed.
The MSCI index of Latin American stocks fell
0.7%, while the corresponding currencies gauge
was largely flat.
"The combination of higher yields, weaker commodities and
renewed Iran headlines is hurtful for Latin American market
dynamics," said Alejandro Cuadrado, Latin America strategist at
BBVA.
REGIONAL POLITICS ADD TO CAUTION
In Brazil, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva widened his
lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of the presidential
election in October, recovering ground after reports linked the
right-wing challenger to a disgraced banker, a poll showed.
Lula would win a potential second-round runoff against
Flavio by 44% to 38%, according to a Quaest poll commissioned by
brokerage Genial. In May, Lula led by a much narrower 42% to
41%.
"This is going to be a tight election, and we are a bit far
out to make a decisive market call based purely on politics,"
Cuadrado said.
Brazil's benchmark Bovespa index fell 0.8%, weighed
down by a 1.1% drop in miner Vale. The real
was nearly flat.
In Peru, investors remained focused on an exceptionally
tight presidential race, with leftist Roberto Sanchez leading
conservative rival Keiko Fujimori by just over 40,000 votes.
Peru's stock benchmark rose 0.2%, after
posting its biggest one-day gain since late 2023, while the sol
weakened 0.3%.
Colombia is also heading toward a presidential vote. Leftist
presidential candidate Ivan Cepeda told Reuters he will
recognize the results of a runoff vote on June 21 even if they
do not favor him. He is set to face right-wing lawyer Abelardo
De La Espriella.
Colombian equities gained 0.5%, while the peso
appreciated 0.6% against the dollar.
In Mexico, stocks fell 0.9%, while the peso
edged 0.2% lower. The Bank of Mexico said that the financial
system remains resilient and has the capacity to withstand
adverse scenarios, while flagging geopolitical conflicts as
risks to monitor.
Chile's main stock index slipped 0.2%, while the
peso strengthened 0.4%. The country's finance ministry
issued new GDP forecasts, projecting growth of 3% in both 2027
and 2028, rising to 3.5% by 2030.
Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:
Stock indexes Latest Daily % change
MSCI Emerging Markets 1667.76 -2.57
MSCI LatAm 2865.76 -0.72
Brazil Bovespa 168485.06 -0.78
Mexico IPC 64834.96 -0.88
Chile IPSA 10479.48 -0.23
Argentina MerVal 3164310.86 0.43
Colombia COLCAP 2264.03 0.52
Currencies Latest Daily % change
Brazil real 5.1731 -0.03
Mexico peso 17.4038 0.2
Chile peso 912.61 0.39
Colombia peso 3547.5 0.58
Peru sol 3.3995 -0.31
Argentina peso 1,433.0 0.69
(interbank)
Argentina peso 1,430.0 2.05
(parallel)