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EMERGING MARKETS-LatAm stocks, FX gain on US-Iran de-escalation expectations
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EMERGING MARKETS-LatAm stocks, FX gain on US-Iran de-escalation expectations
Apr 14, 2026 1:56 PM

* Latam assets rebound as US-Iran talks expected to

resume, easing oil concerns

* IMF lowers 2026 growth outlook for EM, warns of

recession risk if conflict escalates

* Brazil election poll shows Lula ahead; Peru runoff set

with Fujimori

* Colombia reverses plan for 100% tariffs on Ecuadorean

imports

(Updates with afternoon trading)

By Johann M Cherian and Twesha Dikshit

April 14 (Reuters) - Stocks and currencies across most

Latin American markets rose on Tuesday with investors optimistic

that the United States and Iran would continue negotiations to

end the conflict in the Middle East that has rattled global

markets.

MSCI's index tracking equities in the region

rose 0.8%, trading at multi-year highs. A corresponding index

tracking currencies added 0.6% as the safe-haven

dollar slipped.

Both indexes have recouped their losses since the start of

the conflict with Iran in late February, with the currencies

benchmark at a record high.

"The peak EM FX sell-off did not look particularly dramatic

compared to other sharp risk-off periods, while several

currencies are already trading at levels stronger versus the USD

than before the war started," JPMorgan analysts said in a note,

while stating a preference for Latam and EMEA EM FX.

Negotiating teams from Washington and Tehran could return to

Islamabad this week to resume talks to end the war, sources told

Reuters, after the collapse of weekend negotiations prompted

Washington to impose a blockade on Iranian ports.

Oil prices fell over 1% and slipped below $100 a

barrel.

Oil-deficient Chile's peso appreciated 0.8%, the most

among major economies in Latam, while Colombia's peso and

Mexico's peso firmed 0.2% each.

Energy companies' share prices fell, with Petrobras

down 4.2%, Ecopetrol down 4.4% and

Argentina's YPF down 2.2%, tracking weaker oil

prices.

GROWTH WORRIES LOOM

Despite optimism over the prospects for peace talks,

uncertainties remained regarding the economic repercussions of

the month-long conflict.

The International Monetary Fund lowered its outlook for

global growth and warned that the global economy would teeter on

the brink of recession if the conflict worsens and if oil stays

above $100 per barrel through 2027.

The fund lowered its 2026 growth forecast for emerging

market and developing economies to 3.9% from its view of 4.2% in

January, with commodity-importing countries expected to be hit

the hardest due to higher energy and food costs.

Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean, however, was

revised higher by 0.1 percentage point to 2.3% for 2026, helped

by exporters such as Brazil, where higher oil prices provide

some relief.

Elections will be a pivotal event for Brazil later this year

and a CNT/MDA poll showed that President Luiz Inacio Lula da

Silva was ahead of Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a potential

runoff in the October general election.

The local stock index edged up 0.4% and hit a record

high.

Meanwhile, Argentine bonds

were marginally higher after a media report that the country

will reach a staff-level agreement with the IMF on the second

review of its $20 billion program as early as this week.

Argentina's monthly inflation rate came in higher than

analyst expectations, as markets keep a close eye on the impact

of the Middle East conflict on the global economy. The benchmark

stock index dropped 1.2%, while the local peso

weakened 0.7%.

Peru's sol slipped 0.5%. Elections over the weekend

showed conservative candidate Keiko Fujimori will advance to a

presidential runoff after she received 16.9% of the votes, with

74% of votes counted.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro said his country would not

impose 100% tariffs on imports from Ecuador, reversing an

announcement made last week by the trade ministry. Local stocks

added 0.6%.

The U.S. issued a Venezuela-related general license that

allows financial transactions involving certain Venezuelan banks

and Venezuelan government individuals, according to documents

posted to the U.S. Treasury Department's website.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 19:51

GMT:

Stock indexes

Latest Daily %

change

MSCI Emerging 1568.52 2.12

Markets

MSCI LatAm 3363.15 0.79

Brazil Bovespa 198838.5 0.42

7

Mexico IPC 68957.47 -0.92

Chile IPSA 11321.42 1.69

Argentina MerVal 2956127. -1.19

86

Colombia COLCAP 2360.28 0.55

Currencies Latest Daily %

change

Brazil real 4.9903 0.12

Mexico peso 17.2557 0.26

Chile peso 885.88 0.79

Colombia 3578.56 0.24

peso

Peru sol 3.3881 -0.54

Argentina 1,365.0 -0.74

peso

(interbank)

Argentina 1,390.0 0

peso

(parallel)

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