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EMERGING MARKETS-Latin American FX, stocks steady as US tariff deadline looms
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EMERGING MARKETS-Latin American FX, stocks steady as US tariff deadline looms
Jul 4, 2025 12:47 PM

(Updates with afternoon trading levels)

*

Brazil's top court to mediate dispute over tax

*

Ethiopia agrees $1 bln deal with World Bank

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MSCI Latam FX, stock indexes set for weekly gains

By Purvi Agarwal

July 4 (Reuters) - Most Latin American currencies steadied on Friday as investors refrained from placing major bets with little clarity on how U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs will be implemented as a July deadline nears.

Trump said that his administration will send letters to 10 to 12 countries on Friday, informing them of tariff rates their exports would face after the July 9 deadline.

"Countries or territories threatened with higher tariffs may experience such tariffs lasting only days or weeks," said John Raines, head of North America economics and Country Risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

"The (Trump) administration may back down as a result of adverse market conditions, or if it perceives that negotiations have progressed positively."

In Latin America, Mexico is among the most exposed to Trump's tariffs as other countries export less to the U.S. than they do to Asia.

This has led investors to view Latam as relatively safe, shielded from significant economic harm from Trump's sweeping duties.

MSCI's index tracking Latin American currencies inched 0.1% lower, but was set for its fifth consecutive week of gains.

The dollar index was down 0.1% on the day, still trading around multi-year lows.

Trading was expected to be thin with U.S. markets shut for the July 4 holiday.

Moreover, some concerns over the fiscal health of the U.S. remained after Congress passed Trump's tax-cut and spending package on Thursday. It is expected to add over $3 trillion to the country's $36.2 trillion debt, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

Mexico's peso was down 0.1% and Brazil's real slipped 0.3%.

The real was on track for its fifth week of gains, its longest win streak since February this year.

Brazil's Supreme Court Justice called a mediation hearing between the government and Congress on July 15 to address a dispute over President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's decree to increase tax on IOF transactions.

The administration has been trying to implement more tax rules to help maintain fiscal discipline ahead of national elections in 2026.

The currency in Chile, the world's largest copper producer, fell 0.1%, tracking prices of the red metal.

Stocks were mixed but moves were muted across the board. Mexican equities were flat, while ones in Argentina edged 0.2% higher. Brazil's main share index was up 0.4%.

MSCI's Latam stocks index was up 0.1%, headed for a weekly gain.

Elsewhere in emerging markets, Ethiopia signed a $1 billion financing agreement with the World Bank to support its economic reform program and boost growth.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

MSCI Emerging Markets 1230.74 -0.5

MSCI LatAm 2387.38 0.08

Brazil Bovespa 141446.81 0.37

Mexico IPC 57902.78 0.02

Argentina Merval 2082579.5 0.213

1

Chile IPSA 8279.88 -0.14

Colombia COLCAP 1683.56 -0.03

Brazil real 5.4217 -0.25

Mexico peso 18.633 -0.1

Chile peso 929 -0.07

Colombia peso 3997.5 -0.25

Peru sol 3.547 -0.08

Argentina peso 1240 -0.65

(interbank)

Argentina peso (parallel) 1210 2.07

(Reporting by Purvi Agarwal and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise and Chizu Nomiyama )

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