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EMERGING MARKETS-Rising dollar weighs on Latam FX, markets digest US-Ukraine talks
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EMERGING MARKETS-Rising dollar weighs on Latam FX, markets digest US-Ukraine talks
Aug 18, 2025 2:13 PM

*

Trump says US would help with Ukraine's security in peace

deal

*

Bolivia's dollar bond hits record high after election

*

Chile's economy expands in Q2, stocks at record high

*

MSCI Latam FX down 0.5%, stocks flat

(Updates with afternoon trading levels)

By Pranav Kashyap and Purvi Agarwal

Aug 18 (Reuters) - Most emerging market assets were

subdued on Monday as investors digested the outcome of a key

meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump, Ukrainian and

European leaders, while currencies in Latin America faced

pressure from a stronger dollar.

Trump said that a peace agreement for the war in Ukraine is

attainable and that the U.S. would help Europe in providing

security for Ukraine as part of any deal.

Ukraine's dollar bonds reversed course to gain on the day,

with the one maturing in 2034 rising 1.3 cents

on the dollar. Russia's rouble edged up 0.1% against the

dollar, according to over-the-counter market data.

"It will certainly feed into risk-on appetite, so that is

good for emerging markets ... we could see declines in oil, that

means lower inflation expectations, which in turn mean lower Fed

rates," said Felipe Barragan, research strategist at

Pepperstone.

In South America, Bolivia's international dollar bond

maturing in 2030 surged to a record high, rising three cents to

79.79, Tradeweb data showed, as early official results pointed

to the ruling Movement for Socialism party's worst election

defeat in a generation.

"For the markets, it must be a relief to see the leftist or

radical leftist candidates not really getting a lot of traction.

So overall a positive, but not the final nail in the coffin,"

said Eduardo Ordonez Bueso, emerging markets debt portfolio

manager at Bankinvest.

Meanwhile, data showed Brazil's economic activity contracted

in June, reinforcing signs of a slowdown under high borrowing

costs, which have been held near a 20-year high of 15%.

Brazil's real slipped 0.6%.

Trump's tariffs complicate the central bank's balancing act

as it continues to assess whether the 15% rate is adequate to

curb inflation.

"Historically, Brazilian equities have risen at a time of

easing and it certainly is not being priced fully into Brazilian

equities so far," Barragan added.

On the day, the dollar index rose 0.3% as

expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts eased following recent

economic data, though a September rate reduction remained priced

in.

MSCI's gauge of regional currencies fell

0.5%, with Mexico's peso slipping 0.2%.

In contrast, Peru's sol gained 0.5% in light trading

volumes.

Regional stock indexes, however, showed mixed performance,

with Brazil's benchmark rising 0.8%, while Mexico's

and Argentina's declined. Colombia's stock market

was closed for a public holiday.

Chilean stocks climbed 1% to a record high after

data showed the economy grew 0.4% in the second quarter, marking

the fourth straight quarter of sequential growth but indicating

a slowdown.

However, a broader gauge of regional equities

remained flat.

Latin American currencies have largely traded in ranges amid

mixed U.S. economic data, as markets assess the interest rate

outlook. Attention now turns to the Kansas City Fed's Jackson

Hole symposium, set for August 21-23, where Fed Chair Jerome

Powell is expected to outline the policy framework and economic

outlook.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

Latin American market

prices from Reuters

MSCI Emerging Markets 1273.04 0.05

MSCI LatAm 2342.59 0.00

Brazil Bovespa 137383.82 0.77

Mexico IPC 58217.07 -0.18

Chile IPSA 8834.64 1.09

Argentina Merval 2185564.2 -0.14

3

Colombia COLCAP

- -

Brazil real 5.4333 -0.61

Mexico peso 18.759 -0.19

Chile peso 963.9 -0.19

Colombia peso 4029.69 -0.35

Peru sol 3.541 0.46

Argentina peso (interbank) 1292.5 -1.35

Argentina peso (parallel) 1320 -1.89

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