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Dovish Powell increases rate cut hopes
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MSCI EM indexes poised to snap multi-day losses
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Carry trade opportunities may soon arise, analyst says
By Niket Nishant and Johann M Cherian
Oct 15 (Reuters) - Emerging market stocks and currencies
shook off recent pessimism on Wednesday after U.S. Federal
Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks increased hopes of lower
interest rates, offsetting concerns about renewed trade tensions
between Washington and Beijing.
An MSCI index tracking emerging market equities
climbed 1.9%, on course for its first gain after three straight
sessions of losses. A similar gauge for currencies
gained 0.5%, set to snap a six-day slide.
Dovish signals from the Fed generally reduce the appeal of
the U.S. dollar, which can ease pressure on emerging
market currencies and make local assets more attractive to
investors.
A weaker dollar also lowers borrowing costs for countries
and companies with dollar-denominated debt, which is significant
for many economies that rely on external financing.
The current economic backdrop could also yield carry trade
strategies, where investors borrow cheaply in dollars and chase
higher yields in emerging markets.
"There are good opportunities in carry trade and at least
for the next half a year, the trend is optimistic," said
Vladimir Miklashevsky, an independent Finnish analyst.
MIXED SIGNALS ACROSS MARKETS
Saudi Arabia's benchmark index rose 0.3%. The
International Monetary Fund upgraded its 2025 economic growth
forecast for the country on Tuesday.
The South African rand and the benchmark 2035
government bond also strengthened, despite a warning
from a Moody's analyst who said weak investment was hurting its
credit rating prospects.
India's benchmark equity index, the Nifty 50, was up
0.8%, on track to snap a two-day losing streak.
While the rebound underscores how sensitive emerging markets
remain to global monetary policy cues, gains may be uneven
across countries.
Malaysia's stock index was flat. The government will
hold talks with the U.S. secretary of commerce on sectoral
tariffs, including on semiconductors, during a meeting of the
ASEAN regional bloc next week, state media reported.
Turkey's main BIST 100 share index was flat on
Wednesday, after closing lower in the last five trading
sessions. The lira was slightly weaker against the
dollar.
Mainland China stocks traded higher, with the Shanghai
Composite index up 1.2% as investors kept their hopes up
for new monetary stimulus following data that showed
deflationary pressures persisted due to prolonged property
market downturn and trade tensions with the U.S.
Elsewhere, Pakistan's international bonds
maturing in 2051 rose one cent on the dollar
each after the IMF said it had reached a staff-level agreement
with the south Asian country on its loan program, which would
allow the country to access $1.2 billion after approval from the
fund's board.