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Equities Fall as Traders Await Inflation Data for Hints on Fed Move in September
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Equities Fall as Traders Await Inflation Data for Hints on Fed Move in September
Aug 11, 2025 2:16 PM

04:45 PM EDT, 08/11/2025 (MT Newswires) -- US equities fell Monday as markets awaited July inflation data for clues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision next month.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.5% to 43,975.1. The Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 dropped 0.3% each to 21,385.4 and 6,373.5, respectively. The Nasdaq hit a record-high close on Friday.

Most sectors ended in the red on Monday, led by energy, while consumer staples paced gainers.

The official report on July US consumer inflation is due Tuesday. It is expected to show the consumer price index rose 0.2% sequentially and 2.8% annually last month, according to a Bloomberg poll. That would compare with growth rates of 0.3% and 2.7%, respectively, reported for June.

"We currently look for a 25 to 50 (basis-point) rate cut in September as a one-year anniversary 'downpayment' by the Fed for Wall Street and Main Street to further signal that the central bank's rate hike cycle is indeed in the process of being wound down," Oppenheimer Asset Management Chief Investment Strategist John Stoltzfus said in a report.

Markets widely expect the Fed to cut interest rates in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

"Investors should expect that the CPI and (Producer Price Index) numbers this week are likely to weigh on the stock and bond markets' performance and on the Fed's consideration of trimming its benchmark rate next month," Stoltzfus wrote.

The official July producer prices report is scheduled to be released Thursday.

US Treasury yields were flat, with the 10-year and two-year rates little changed at 4.28% and 3.77%, respectively.

UBS on Monday raised its 2025 target for the S&P 500 as the US economy and companies have performed better than expected, though the brokerage predicted a market trough in the second half. UBS lifted its year-end target to 6,100 from 5,500, but sees the index reaching 5,900 late in the third quarter or early in the fourth quarter.

"Worst-case scenarios on tariffs have not been realized, confidence in fiscal support and a weaker dollar have mitigated the earnings impact, spreads are tight and flows have remained supportive," UBS strategists, including Bhanu Baweja, said in a note.

About 91% of S&P 500 companies have reported quarterly results in the current cycle, with earnings up 11.4% from a year earlier on revenue growth of 6%, Oppenheimer Asset Management said. The brokerage's report released last Monday pegged the growth rates at 8.2% and 5.7%, respectively, based on financials reported by about two-thirds of the index constituents.

Ahead of the reporting season, Forbes put analysts' projected earnings growth at 4.8%, according to Oppenheimer.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil was up 0.3% at $64.05 a barrel in Monday late-afternoon trade.

In company news, Monday.com ( MNDY ) issued a third-quarter revenue outlook below market expectations at the midpoint, even as the project management software provider's results for the prior three-month period exceeded Wall Street's estimates. The company's shares tumbled nearly 30%.

Paramount (PSKY) will become the exclusive distributor of UFC's fighting events in the US under a $7.7 billion media rights deal with TKO Group ( TKO ) . TKO shares jumped 10%, the top gainer on the S&P 500, while Paramount fell 3.7%.

Gold was down 2.6% at $3,401.9 per troy ounce, as President Donald Trump said that imports of the yellow metal won't be subject to tariffs.

Silver lost 2.2% to $37.72 per ounce.

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