Jan 15 (Reuters) - Euro area benchmark Bund yields edged
lower on Wednesday, breaking a 10-day rising streak, as
investors awaited U.S. consumer price inflation figures later in
the session.
Strong economic data and fears that U.S. President-elect
Donald Trump's policies could boost inflation have driven yields
up on both sides of the Atlantic since early December.
Germany's 10-year yield dropped 2 basis points
(bps) to 2.60% after hitting a fresh seven-month high at 2.63%.
"The recent move higher in euro rates mainly reflects an
increase in the beta to U.S. rates over the past month," JP
Morgan strategist Francis Diamond said in a research note.
"We find the recent term premium repricing in German yields
quite excessive and expect the cheapness to fully correct going
forward and stay long 10-year Bund," he added.
Euro zone industrial production rose as expected in November
but new data was unlikely to signal any major turnaround for a
sector in its second year of recession.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields were down 1.5 bps
to 4.77% after hitting 4.8090% on Tuesday, its highest level
since Nov. 1, 2023.
"The front-end (of U.S. yields) is already fully discounting
only one more Federal Reserve cut for this year, but it is
especially the back-end (longer-term) of the yield where we see
more upside on the back of supply and inflation pressures," said
Padhraic Garvey, regional head of research Americas at ING.
"To reverse this trend we'd need to see Wednesday's CPI
report surprise to the downside," he added, before flagging the
core monthly inflation rate is expected at 0.3%, which
"annualises to over 4% inflation."
Germany's 2-year bond yield, more sensitive to
European Central Bank rate expectations, fell 2 bps to 2.3%
after hitting a fresh 2-1/2-month high at 2.323%.
Money markets priced in a European Central Bank deposit
facility rate at over 2.1% at the end of 2025, from 1.8% in
early December.
The yield spread between French and German yields
, a gauge of the risk premium investors demand to
hold french debt, stood at 83 bps.
French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou on Tuesday opened the
door to renegotiating a disputed pension reform in a bid to win
over left-wing lawmakers whose support he needs to pass the 2025
budget. Such a move which could increase market concerns about
the government's ability to curb the burgeoning public deficit.
Italy's 10-year government bond yield was down 4
bps at 3.79%, while the gap between Italian and German yields
stood at 118 bps.