* German 10-year yields fall for fifth day
* Investors price one more ECB rate hike this year
* Reuters poll anticipates euro zone core inflation at 2.5%
in May
By Amanda Cooper
LONDON, June 17 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond prices
rose for a fifth day on Tuesday, in their longest rally since
February, as cooling market expectations for inflation met
caution ahead of Kevin Warsh's first meeting as head of the
Federal Reserve.
The oil price has fallen to below $80 a barrel, a
drop of 10% since Monday after the United States and Iran
said they had reached an agreement on the framework for a peace
deal, to be signed in Geneva on Friday.
As a result, bond yields - which move inversely to price -
have tumbled and stocks have soared along with rate-sensitive
assets like gold.
Benchmark German 10-year yields fell 2 basis
points to 2.921%, as prices rose for the longest since
mid-February, prior to the start of the Iran war.
Yields are still nearly 30 bps higher than in late February,
but have retreated sharply from 15-year highs a month ago at
3.2%.
Two-year yields, which tend to react more to
shifts in expectations for inflation and rates, have retreated
more slowly. Two-year Schatz yields, which on
Wednesday were down 2.6 bps at 2.56%, are 55 bps higher than at
the start of the war.
ONE MORE ECB HIKE EXPECTED
Investors expect one more rate hike from the European
Central Bank this year, after last Thursday's quarter-point
increase. A week ago, a total of three hikes were priced in for
2026, which most market watchers believed would have been
excessive.
ECB chief economist Philip Lane said in an interview at the
Reuters NEXT Europe conference in London on Tuesday that the
central bank would remain "proactive" in its fight against high
inflation.
Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid noted the ECB's continued
concerns.
"So even with oil prices coming down again, markets are
still fully pricing in a second ECB hike before the end of the
year, following on from last week's move," he said.
May inflation data for the wider euro zone is due on
Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters expect the core rate,
which excludes food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, to have
increased by 2.5% last month, matching the rise in April.
Italian 10-year yields were down 1 basis point
on the day at 2.74%, around their lowest in three months, which
kept their premium over German Bund yields just below 70 bps
.