LONDON, March 22 (Reuters) - Euro zone bond yields fell
on Friday and were on their way to a weekly decline, after
central banks reassured investors that interest rate cuts in
several markets are likely to come in the summer.
Germany's 10-year bond yield, the euro zone benchmark, was
down 7 basis points (bps) at 2.326%. It was on track for a
weekly fall of 11 bps, and was trading around its lowest in a
week.
Yields have been rising for much of 2024 as resilient
economic data, particularly in the United States, has caused
traders to push back expectations of substantial interest rate
cuts until the middle of 2024.
But several central bank meetings this week saw markets
became more confident that cuts would at least come by the
middle of the year.
"A lot has happened, there have been a lot of central bank
meetings, but if you take a step back we are much closer to the
point where central banks want to and are going to start
cutting, and we have had the first cut from the Swiss central
bank," said Jamie Niven, senior fixed income fund manager at
asset manager Candriam.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept rates steady but
reiterated its projection that it would cut interest rates by 75
bps by the end of the year, then on Thursday the Bank of England
said the economy was heading in the right direction for cuts.
In Switzerland, where inflation is lower, the Swiss National
Bank surprised markets by reducing borrowing costs 25 bps.
Italy's 10-year yield was last down 3 bps at
3.637% and set for a weekly fall of 6 bps.
The closely watched spread between German and Italian yields
was at 130 bps, up from a more than two year low
on of 115 bps last Thursday.
Bonds rose further in the afternoon session, pushing yields
lower, although there was little in the way of data to excite
markets.
"The moves seem typical of an end-of-quarter risk-off tone
driven by portfolio rebalancing or deleveraging," said Michiel
Tukker, rates strategist at ING.
"Such moves can be frontloaded a week in advance, and we saw
a similar picture on the last Friday in February."
Markets see a roughly 85% chance that the European Central
Bank and Federal Reserve will cut rates by their June meetings.
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel on Friday added his name
to a long list of policymakers suggesting that June was the
date, saying the ECB might be in a position to cut interest
rates before the summer recess.
Markets were also digesting a survey released on Friday
showing German business morale improved in March and beat
expectations.
Rate sensitive shorter-dated bond yields were also set for
weekly declines, Germany's two-year yield down 5 bps
at 2.806% and set for a weekly drop of 10 bps.