LONDON, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Euro zone bond yields nudged
lower on Tuesday as U.S. Treasury yields declined on the back of
growing expectations the Federal Reserve will deliver a December
rate cut.
Germany's 10-year Bund yield was down 2.5 basis points (bps)
at 2.67%, broadly in the middle of its range for much of this
year.
U.S. Treasury yields kept declining on Tuesday, with the
benchmark 10-year down 5.5 bps at 4.49%, amid a
flurry of economic data releases that did little to dissuade
investors about the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the
Federal Reserve next month.
With markets seeing the European Central Bank as firmly on
hold, European rates have been fairly muted in recent weeks.
Spillovers from moves in stocks or U.S. and Japanese government
bonds have not been sufficient to drive significant shifts
either.
The decline in U.S. yields helped the gap between German and
U.S. 10-year yields drop to 132.8 bps on Monday, its narrowest
closing level in two months. It ticked slightly wider again on
Tuesday.
Analysts at UBS said the fact investors cannot be too
confident about the direction of central bank policy on either
side of the Atlantic is adding a note of caution to markets.
"Divergence in central bank views and delayed data make
high-conviction trades harder," they wrote in a note to
clients.
They observed that while ECB President Christine Lagarde has
repeatedly said its policy rate is "in a good place", she warned
last week about the euro zone's growth vulnerabilities.
Meanwhile, in the U.S., though the last few Fed speakers
have indicated they are open to a rate cut in December's
meeting, others last week were less sure.
"You might see the least groupthink you've seen from the
FOMC (rate setting committee) in a long time," Fed Governor
Christopher Waller said last week.
The slow trickling in of U.S. economic data delayed by the
government shutdown further adds to the uncertainty.
U.S. retail sales and PPI for September are due later
Tuesday.
The back-and-forth around a possible peace deal to end the
war in Ukraine has also had little effect on euro zone bonds
even as it moves stocks, particularly defence names.
Analysts at ING said that if a Ukraine deal were to lead to
lower gas prices, and so lower inflation, that could cause euro
zone yields to fall.
Elsewhere in Europe on Tuesday, French and Italian 10-year
yields were largely moving in line with Germany's.
France's 10-year yield was down 4.5 bps at 3.40% and Italy's
was down a similar amount at 3.40%.