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By Stefano Rebaudo
May 8 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields edged
higher on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve warned about
the risks of higher inflation and unemployment, with investors
now looking towards the Bank of England's monetary policy
meeting later in the day.
The Fed held interest rates steady on Wednesday but said those
risks clouded the U.S. economic outlook as policymakers grapple
with the impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs.
Germany's 10-year yield, the euro area's benchmark,
rose 0.5 basis points (bps) to 2.48%. It hit 2.556% on Tuesday,
its highest level since April 14.
"While the Fed sees increased risks to both employment and
inflation, this assessment is probably obvious given the tariff
backdrop," said Hauke Siemssen, rate strategist at Commerzbank.
"More insightful were (Fed chair Jerome) Powell's repeated
remarks that there is no real cost to waiting as the labour
market is still doing well while inflation has come down," he
added, arguing that markets did not interpret this as overly
hawkish.
U.S. Treasury yields edged higher, with the 10-year
up 2.0 bps at 4.29% after dropping the day before, while the
policy-rate sensitive 2-year yield was roughly
unchanged.
Money markets priced in a European Central Bank deposit
facility rate at 1.6% after falling to below 1.55% in mid-April
as the ECB suggested it was ready to cut rates in response to
the potential adverse impact of U.S. tariffs.
German 2-year yields, more sensitive to European
Central Bank policy rates, rose 1.0 bp to 1.74%.
The BoE is expected to lower rates by 0.25 bps, and some
economists think it will soon need to speed up its gradual
approach to rate cuts. Citi expects the British central bank to
validate the recent scaling back of rate cuts priced into
derivatives markets "rather than push it any further".
Markets are currently pricing 95 bps of monetary easing by
December from 145 bps at the end of March before the
announcement of U.S. tariffs by Trump. Some analysts argued the
BoE could end up more hawkish than expected as hard economic
data shows no signs of a deteriorating outlook and the impact of
tariffs will be small since the UK has limited exposure to U.S.
goods demand.
Italy's 10-year yield was up 1.0 bp at 3.57%,
leaving the spread between it and Germany's Bund yield - a
market gauge of the risk premium investors demand to hold
Italian debt - at 104 basis points.