* Middle East tensions remain in focus for bonds
* Markets trim 2026 ECB rate hike bets
* Weak euro zone economic data and lower US growth
estimates temper bond yield rises
(Updates for European afternoon trading)
LONDON, May 28 (Reuters) - Euro zone bond yields fell on
Thursday after Axios reported that the U.S. and Iran had reached
an agreement for a 60-day ceasefire that would see an end to the
blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and keep traffic through the
waterway unrestricted.
Axios reported U.S. President Donald Trump was yet to give
the agreement his final approval, but that a deal would mark a
significant diplomatic breakthrough a day after the United
States and Iran traded missile strikes.
The effective closure of the Strait since the outbreak of
the conflict has severely impacted global energy supplies,
pushing up oil prices and bringing higher inflation across the
globe.
Euro zone bond yields have jumped since the war began as
traders bet the European Central Bank would have to carry out as
much as 75 bps of hikes - three full increases - to tackle
inflation stemming from rising oil prices due to the Iran war.
Oil prices trimmed an earlier rise but were still up
slightly on the day.
Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for
the euro zone, fell 2 basis points to 2.968%. It had earlier
been higher on the day after the U.S. and Iran traded missile
strikes.
The report has provided markets with "cautious optimism",
according to Axel Rudolph, chief technical analyst at IG.
"Investor optimism remains tempered by uncertainty over
whether President Trump will give the deal his final approval,"
Rudolph said.
ECB RATE HIKE?
Money market traders slightly trimmed their expectations for
rate hikes from the ECB, although they were still pricing in
about a 90% chance of a hike next month.
Investors were last pricing in around 55 bps of tightening
from the ECB this year, from around 60 bps before the news.
The two-year German bond yield, which is sensitive to
ECB interest-rate expectations, fell 2.5 bps to 2.551%, having
been up about 1 bp earlier in the day.
The decision by the ECB to keep rates unchanged in April was
a close call for some policymakers as persistently high
inflation made it difficult to look through the energy-driven
price shock, the accounts of their latest meeting showed.
Consumer price inflation jumped to 3% last month. Data
scheduled for release next Tuesday is expected to show an even
bigger rise in consumer prices.
Soft U.S. economic data also helped bonds on Thursday,
pulling yields down.
Estimated U.S. growth for the first quarter was revised
lower on Thursday, while a closely watched measure of price
pressures came in largely in line with expectations.
The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell 2
bps at 4.461%.