* German bond yields rise as US strikes dampen peace
hopes
* ECB policymakers, including Schnabel, signal likely
June hike
* Money markets price in 90% chance of June ECB hike, at
least two hikes by year-end
(Updates for late European morning trading, adds analyst quote
in paragraphs 4-6)
By Samuel Indyk
LONDON, May 26 (Reuters) - Germany's 10-year bond yield
rose on Tuesday on concerns a Middle East peace deal may still
be some way off after the U.S. launched new strikes on Iran,
although it remained near a roughly seven-week low hit the
previous day.
U.S. and Iranian negotiators remain in talks to end the
three-month war that has severely disrupted Middle Eastern oil
and gas supplies and pushed global inflation higher.
Expectations of a breakthrough and a reopening of the Strait of
Hormuz had supported bonds in recent days.
But optimism was tempered overnight after the U.S. said it
had carried out what it described as defensive strikes in
southern Iran, suggesting any peace deal is not imminent.
The escalation in the Middle East was pushing up bond yields
across the bloc on Tuesday, according to Anders Svendsen, chief
analyst at Nordea.
"Directionally, bonds are still trading on headlines from
the Middle East," said Svendsen.
"We think at the point where there is a reopening (of the
Strait of Hormuz) that there will be relief in risky assets and
yields will come down, but then the focus will be on
second-round impacts and those are going to be significant."
Germany's 10-year yield was up 2.5 basis points
at 2.973%, after falling almost 9 bps on Monday to 2.93%, its
lowest since April 8.
The 30-year yield was up 1.5 bps at 3.516% after
touching 3.484% on Monday, its lowest since April 9.
ECB TO HIKE?
The European Central Bank has kept interest rates on hold
for the past year but looks increasingly likely to raise them
next month as sharply higher energy costs have pushed inflation
well above its 2% target.
ECB policymaker Isabel Schnabel told Reuters that the
central bank should raise rates in June even if a peace deal is
struck, given the size and persistence of the energy
shock. Other policymakers have also recently made the case for
tighter monetary policy.
Money-market traders are pricing in about a 90% chance of a
hike at the ECB's June meeting, while 57 bps of tightening is
priced by year-end, implying at least two quarter-point hikes.
"I struggle to see how we get out of this without some form
of secondary impact, without higher inflation, and therefore
also higher ECB rates," said Nordea's Svendsen, adding that
analysts have factored in four rate hikes from the ECB this
year.
"Two hikes will not do anything to dampen the second-round
impact so there's a fair chance they will end up doing more than
that."
Germany's two-year yield, which is sensitive to
changes in rate policy, was up 3 bps to 2.57%. It fell 10 bps on
Monday to 2.523%, its lowest since May 7.