(Updates at 1008 GMT)
By Samuel Indyk
LONDON, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond
yields rose on Monday, adding to a sharp jump at the end of last
week following stronger-than-forecast U.S. labour market data
that markets think will allow the Federal Reserve to slow its
pace of easing.
Germany's 10-year yield, the euro area
benchmark, was up 3 basis points (bps) at 2.242%, after touching
its highest level in a month at 2.258%.
The U.S. added 254,000 nonfarm payrolls in September, well
above expectations in a Reuters survey of economists. The
unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%.
"The payroll report should put to rest any expectations of a
50bp cut in November," said Mohit Kumar, an economist at
Jefferies.
Futures markets almost fully wiped out the chances of
another 50 bp rate cut from the Fed at the meeting next month -
which stood at around a one-in-three chance before the data -
with markets seeing a 25 bp rate cut as the most likely outcome.
US Treasury yields jumped. The benchmark 10-year yield
rose to 4% for the first time in two months, while
the two-year yield rose 6 bps on Monday, adding to
Friday's 21 bp rise.
The size and importance of the U.S. economy means U.S.
economic data tends to impact bond markets globally.
The European Central Bank is still widely expected to lower
interest rates when it meets next week, with markets fully
pricing in a 25 bp move.
"Monetary policy within the euro area is still
restrictive and there is room to recalibrate policy closer to
the neutral level," said Robert Bergqvist, senior economist at
SEB.
"I think central banks should move with a normal step
and that implies a 25 basis point move next week."
ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said the
central bank will
probably cut interest rates
in October as growth is weak, raising the risk that
inflation will undershoot the 2% target.
Growth indicators continue to point to a stuttering
economy.
Business activity
in the bloc contracted last month for the first time since
February, a survey showed last week.
German industrial orders
fell by 5.8% in August, data showed on Monday.
"You have downside risks to growth, especially when you
look at the manufacturing industry and you look at Germany,"
SEB's Bergqvist said.
Germany's two-year yield, which is sensitive to
changes in monetary policy expectations, was up 4 bps at 2.248%.
It jumped over 13 bps on Friday, its biggest one-day rise since
April, 2023.
Italy's 10-year yield was up 3 bps at 3.55%,
with the gap between Italian and German 10-year yields
steady at 130 bps.
Sovereign bond issuance from the euro zone is expected to
decline this week, with Italy, Germany, Austria and the
Netherlands set to come to market.
UniCredit strategist Francesco Maria Di Bella expects
the issuance to amount to 15 billion euros, down from 26 billion
euros last week.