(Updates after morning trading)
By Alun John
LONDON, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Euro zone bond yields nudged
lower on Tuesday as U.S. Treasury yields held their recent
declines on the back of growing expectations the Federal Reserve
will deliver a December rate cut.
Germany's 10-year Bund yield was down one basis point at
2.68%, broadly in the middle of its range for much of this year.
With markets seeing the European Central Bank as firmly on
hold, European rates have been fairly muted in recent weeks.
Spillovers from moves in stocks or U.S. and Japanese government
bonds have not been sufficient to drive significant shifts
either.
U.S. yields have been dropping in recent days as bets on a
Federal Reserve rate cut rise, but were steadier on Tuesday with
the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.03%.
The decline in U.S. yields helped the gap between German and
U.S. 10 year yields to drop to 133.3 bps on Monday, its
narrowest closing level in two months. It ticked slightly wider
again on Tuesday.
Analysts at UBS said the fact investors cannot be too
confident about the direction of central bank policy on either
side of the Atlantic is adding a note of caution to markets.
"Divergence in central bank views and delayed data make
high-conviction trades harder," they wrote in a note to clients.
They observed that while ECB President Christine Lagarde has
repeatedly said its policy rate is "in a good place", she warned
last week about the euro zone's growth vulnerabilities .
Meanwhile, in the U.S., though the last few Fed speakers
have indicated they are open to a rate cut in December's
meeting, others last week were less sure.
"You might see the least groupthink you've seen from the
FOMC (rate setting committee) in a long time," Fed Governor
Christopher Waller said last week.
The slow trickling in of U.S. economic data delayed by the
government shutdown further adds to the uncertainty.
U.S. retail sales and PPI for September are due later
Tuesday.
The back and forth around a possible peace deal to end the
war in Ukraine has also had little effect on euro zone bonds
even as it moves stocks, particularly defence names.
Analysts at ING said if a deal were to lead to lower gas
prices, and so lower inflation, that could cause euro zone
yields to fall.
Elsewhere in Europe on Tuesday French and Italian 10-year
yields were largely moving in line with Germany's.
France's 10-year yield was down 2 bps at 3.42% and Italy's
was down a similar amount at 3.43%.