Oct 10 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields
pared their rise on Thursday after U.S. economic data led
investors to slightly increase bets on Federal Reserve interest
rate cuts.
U.S. consumer prices rose slightly more than expected in
September, but their annual increase was the smallest in more
than 3-1/2 years.
Germany's 10-year bond yield, the euro zone's
benchmark, was up one basis point to 2.26%, after reaching
2.282% earlier in the session, its highest since Sept. 4.
Money markets priced in 46 bps of rate cuts by year-end from
43 bps before the U.S. data.
They also discounted an around 90% chance of 50 bps of
European Central Bank rate cuts by year-end
from 80% right before the data.
ECB policymakers appeared content with the drop in inflation
in the euro zone when they met last month but argued for a
gradual policy easing given lingering domestic price pressures,
the accounts of their policy meeting showed on Thursday.
The "minutes confirm that at the September meeting, the ECB
seemed determined and comfortable to continue its very gradual
pace of reducing monetary policy restrictiveness," said Carsten
Brzeski, global head of macro at ING.
"We are far less certain than financial markets that the ECB
will actually cut rates next week," he added.
Germany's two-year bond yield, which is more
sensitive to ECB rate expectations, was up 0.5 bp at 2.26%,
after hitting 2.287%, its highest level since mid-September.
Borrowing costs were on the rise on both sides of the
Atlantic before the U.S. data as investors kept pricing in a
patient policy loosening path in the U.S. after Fed minutes from
September's policy meeting were released on Wednesday.
Several ECB policymakers argued their case on Wednesday for
a rate cut next week, while Peter Kazimir was critical about the
expectation of a done deal and Pierre Wunsch was not yet
convinced of such a move.
The ECB's Gabriel Makhlouf said that persistent services
inflation and stronger-than-expected wage growth present upside
risks.
The gap between French and German 10-year yields
- a gauge of the risk premium investors demand to
hold France's government bonds - was last at 77 bps, with Prime
Minister Michel Barnier set to present the budget bill for 2025
later in the session.
According to a note from Citi, investors will closely watch
for details of an expected 60 billion euros ($65.6 billion) in
spending cuts to assess the effort's credibility, the state
funding update for 2024 and initial supply targets for 2025.
The overall picture would impact rating decisions starting
Friday with a Fitch review.
Also, Portugal's 2025 budget will be in focus as the
minority centre-right government has watered down its proposals
for two major tax cuts, aiming to persuade the main opposition
Socialists to allow passage in parliament.
The Portuguese yield spread on 10-year maturities
tightened slightly to 49 bps.
Italy's 10-year government bond yield rose one
bp to 3.57%, and the gap between Italian and German yields
was 130 bps.
($1 = 0.9141 euro)
(Reporting by Stefano Rebaudo, editing by)