May 13 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields
struggled for direction on Monday, with investors on hold ahead
of U.S. figures following a data-light week.
Investors will focus on April's U.S. Producer Price Index
(PPI), to be released on Tuesday, and the Consumer Price Index
(CPI) and retail sales data on Wednesday.
Germany's 10-year government bond yields, the
bloc's benchmark, dropped 1 basis point (bp) to 2.51%.
Markets price in 68 basis points (bps) of ECB rate cuts in
2024, from 67 late Friday, and 45 bps for
the Fed.
Some analysts argued that a further widening divergence
between the ECB and the Fed policy paths would weaken the euro
and fuel inflation, forcing the ECB to tighten its monetary
policy. Others highlighted that the ECB can become more cautious
in its easing cycle because of signs of wage data pressure.
"If wage growth does not eventually slow as country-level
data now suggest is a risk, coupled with ECB-speak turning
increasingly more hawkish, especially from dovish members, in
response to data outturns, this risks the ECB eventually cutting
more cautiously," said Andrzej Szczepaniak, economist at Nomura.
ECB's Vice President Luis De Guindos said last week the
number of future rate cuts would also depend on the evolution of
salaries, recalling that the Fed's interest rate decisions
influence the U.S. dollar exchange rate and the global economy.
Italy's 10-year yield fell 0.5 bps to 3.84%. The
gap between Italian and German bonds - a gauge of
the risk premium investors seek to hold bonds of the euro area's
most indebted countries - was at 133 bps from around 120 bps
before the release of the first data about the sale of an
Italian bond aimed at retail investors.
Orders for Italy's new 6-year BTP Valore have risen above 11
billion euros, Bourse data showed on Friday, while the previous
edition attracted bids worth 18.3 billion euros.
Demand from retail investors has supported bond prices for
months, but analysts reckon that the outcome of the recent sale
will not impact Italy's yield spread further.
They said households' allocation towards fixed income has
room to grow as it remains low from a historical perspective,
and global credit risk appetite has recently been the most
reliable guide to pricing Italian sovereign bonds.
The spread between German and Spanish 10-year government
bond yields was flat at 78.5 bps after
Spain's Socialists won the biggest share of the vote in Sunday's
Catalan elections, dealing a serious blow to more than a decade
of independence dreams.