LONDON, July 15 (Reuters) - Euro zone bond yields edged
higher on Wednesday, a day after swinging dramatically over
renewed hostilities in the Middle East and the release of U.S.
inflation data.
Germany's 2-year bond yield was last up 1 basis
point at 2.731%. Yields move inversely to prices.
The yield, which is sensitive to central bank rate
expectations, rose as much as 8 bps on Tuesday to a two-year
high as oil prices jumped on the U.S.-Iran conflict, before
falling sharply after U.S. inflation data came in weaker than
expected and ending roughly flat on the day.
The United States and Iran continued to trade strikes on
Tuesday and Wednesday after Iran said it had closed the Strait
of Hormuz and the U.S. reimposed a naval blockade of Iranian
ports.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has threatened to
close other export corridors, Iranian media reported, in what
analysts said was a possible sign it could use its Houthi allies
in Yemen to shut the Bab el-Mandeb gateway to the Red Sea,
putting two of the world's most vital energy arteries at risk.
Oil prices were also quieter on Wednesday, with Brent crude
down 1% at $84.11 a barrel.
Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for
the euro zone, rose 2 bps to 3.091%.
A jump in oil prices over the last week has seen traders
sharply raise their bets on ECB rate hikes this year, but they
wound them back in somewhat after the U.S. CPI inflation data.
Money markets were last pricing in 43 bps of further ECB
tightening this year, up from 30 bps a week ago but down from a
peak of 48 bps on Tuesday.
Data on Tuesday showed headline U.S. inflation slowed more
than expected to 3.5% year-on-year in June, down from 4.2% in
May, although the fall was largely due to a drop in energy
prices which is now under threat.
Analysts at ING said ECB rate pricing was likely to be
mainly driven by oil and gas prices.
"Markets' European Central Bank pricing can continue to
diverge from the Fed's," the analysts, Michiel Tukker and
Benjamin Schroeder, wrote on Wednesday.
"The momentum in U.S. inflation should be downwards, whereas
for Europe the peak might not be in sight yet, especially if
energy prices continue to drift higher again."