Aug 12 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields
edged higher on Monday after a volatile week of trading on
worries around the U.S. economy as investors awaited U.S.
inflation data to gauge the extent of interest rate cuts by the
Federal Reserve this year.
The German 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for
the euro zone bloc, rose 2.6 basis points to 2.248%.
It had sunk to a seven-month low of 2.074% on last Monday
when worries about slowing U.S. jobs growth, an unravelling of
Japanese yen-funded trades and disappointing earnings among
large tech firms sent investors scurrying to the perceived
safety of bonds.
Euro zone bond yields have steadily rebounded since then,
with better-than-expected U.S. data easing concerns about an
economic downturn and traders paring back bets of rate cuts from
the U.S. central bank this year.
"It was a combination of overreaction but also data has
shifted a little bit but that shouldn't necessarily warrant
moves as big as that," said Rufaro Chiriseri, head of fixed
income for the British Isles at RBC Wealth Management.
Focus shifts to U.S. consumer prices data on Wednesday, with
economists forecasting a slight pick up in inflation in July but
not enough to move the needle on expectations of a rate cut next
month.
Traders are currently pricing in rate cuts of 101 bps by the
end of the year and roughly evenly split on whether the U.S.
central bank will cut rates by 25 bps or 50 bps at its September
17-18 policy meeting.
"What we're seeing at the moment is a lot of investors being
positioned for a sublime inflation outlook and there is that
risk of disappointment. We could see yields rise if we do get a
surprise in the data," said Chiriseri.
Germany's two-year bond yield, which is more
sensitive to European Central Bank (ECB) rate expectations, rose
2.9 bps at 2.41%.
Money markets show traders are currently pricing in about 66
bps of rate cuts from the ECB by the end of this year, down from
the 72 bps seen last Monday.
The central bank cut rates by 25 bps in June, its first such
move in five years, and traders see a 91% chance of another 25
bps rate cut in September.
Italy's 10-year yield was higher by 1.8 bps at
3.662%, and the gap between Italian and German bunds
narrowed 4 basis points to 140.7 bps.