March 28 (Reuters) - Euro zone bond yields edged up on
Thursday after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller
advocated a higher-for-longer rate strategy ahead of inflation
data which could affect the central banks' policy path.
Waller said it was prudent to hold rates at the current
restrictive levels for longer to help keep inflation on a
sustainable trajectory toward 2%.
France, Italy and the U.S. will issue inflation figures on
Friday, while German and euro area-wide data is due next week.
Some analysts argued that markets would need outsized
surprises to shake confidence in the timing of the first ECB
rate cut to be in June, while inflation figures could affect
bets on further ECB rate cuts.
Money markets last fully priced in a 25 bps ECB rate cut by
June and around 90 bps by year-end.
Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for
the bloc, was up 3.5 basis points (bps) at 2.33%, after hitting
late on Wednesday 2.292%, its lowest level since March 12.
Some analysts argued that hawkish Fed comments provided
bumps in the road for further easing of bond yields, but the
prospects for benign consumer price prints could support Bund
prices. Bond prices move inversely with yields.
Bund yields were set to end the week roughly unchanged, the
month down 8.5 bps and the first quarter up 28 bps.
At the end of December 2023, Bund yields hit their lowest
levels in around one year as markets increased bets on future
rate cuts to over 150 bps.
In 2024, investors reduced their initial forecasts after
strong economic data, and European Central Bank officials pushed
back against market expectations for excessive monetary easing.
Yields in U.S. Treasuries fell on Wednesday before Waller's
remarks, but the focus is on the U.S. core personal consumption
expenditure (PCE) price index data for February, due on Friday.
"The market could react in quite an asymmetric fashion to
tomorrow's PCE release, with an above consensus print prompting
quite a sharp repricing (i.e. removal of a June cut) while
something lower than consensus will need to be reinforced by a
second month's print for investors to gain confidence about
pricing in more than 75 bps of 2024 cuts," Rabobank said in its
morning note.
Italy's 10-year bond yield was up 9 bps at 3.70%
, with the closely watched gap to Germany's 10-year
yield at 136 bps, its highest since March 6.
The yield gap -- a market gauge of risk premium investors
ask to hold bonds of the euro area's most indebted countries --
has corrected sharply after hitting 115.40 in mid-March, its
lowest in over 26 months.
Italian spreads recently tracked yield gaps tightening in
the credit markets while turning a blind eye to Italian state
sector budget deficit.