LONDON, Aug 14 (Reuters) -
Euro zone government bond yields rose on Friday, driven by
strong U.S. economic data after dropping earlier in the session
on dovish remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in
July, suggesting a
broader pickup in inflation
in the months ahead.
In an interview on Bloomberg TV, U.S. President Donald
Trump's influential right-hand man on the economy said on
Thursday there was "a good chance" the Federal Reserve lowers
rates by 50 basis points (bps) when it convenes next month.
On Friday he argued that the central bank could "start with
25 (basis points) and then accelerate," underlining he did not
tell the Fed what to do.
Investors priced in around a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut
next month, and a total of 124 basis points of easing by October
2026. Money market futures imply a European Central Bank depo
rate at 1.9% from the current 2% at the end 2026.
"We haven't had a major catalyst from the euro area so, more
broadly, moves have been driven by the U.S.," said Mohamad
Al-Saraf, forex and fixed income research associate at Danske
Bank.
"In general, moves this week have been driven by the
better-than-feared U.S. inflation report and it now looks pretty
much a done deal that the Fed will cut next month. The question
is whether they go for 25 or 50 basis points."
Tuesday's U.S.
inflation report
was a mixed bag, with headline consumer prices rising
marginally but underlying measures showing signs of building
price pressures.
Germany's two-year yield, which is sensitive to
changes in monetary policy expectations, was up one bp at 1.95%.
It fell 3.5 bps on Wednesday.
Germany's 10-year government bond yield, the
benchmark for the euro area, rose 3 bps to 2.70% after falling
6.5 bps on Wednesday.
Italy's 10-year bond yield fell 3.5 bps to
3.51%, pushing the spread between Italian and German 10-year
yields to 70.2 bps, the tightest since at least
2011, according to LSEG data.
The yield gap between Italian and French 10-year yields
narrowed to about 14 bps, reflecting increasing
concerns about France's fiscal trajectory
.
France unveiled a 2026 budget plan in July that included
almost 44 billion euros ($51 billion) of
cuts
, which will probably draw resistance from Socialist
lawmakers when parliament returns from recess next month.
Worries about France's debt sustainability have been
driving the narrower spread between French and Italian yields,
according to Danske Bank's Al-Saraf.
Investors were awaiting U.S. factory inflation and jobless
claims data due later on Thursday, as well as the Alaska summit
between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday.
Analysts have said a ceasefire in Ukraine could support
riskier assets and weigh on government bond prices, lifting
yields.
Germany's 30-year yield, which touched an
11-year high of 3.309% on Tuesday, was up 3 bps at 3.26%.