April 15 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields
rose on Monday after plunging on Friday, as the latest
developments eased fears of an immediate escalation in the
Middle East conflict.
Iran ended its retaliatory attack with no significant damage
to Israel, and Washington said it did all it could to avoid open
warfare erupting between the two countries.
Borrowing costs in the euro area extended their rise
somewhat after stronger than expected U.S. retail sales data
suggested consumers are weathering high interest rates, reducing
the need for rate cuts.
The 10-year government bond yield, the euro
zone's benchmark, was up 6 basis points (bps) at 2.42%, after
dropping 11.8 bps on Friday in its biggest daily fall since Oct.
9, the Monday after Palestinian Islamist group Hamas attacked
Israel. Bond prices move inversely with yields.
"The week is starting on a fraught note, with unease still
clouding sentiment. Investors are on alert for retaliatory
action following Iran's attack on Israel," said Susannah
Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown.
The U.S. benchmark 10-year yield reached 4.626%,
its highest since November, up 11 bps.
Analysts said if Bund yields saw upward pressure from
developments in U.S. Treasuries, financial conditions could be
overly tight in the euro zone, and the European Central Bank
would have to respond with easier monetary conditions.
The gap between the 10-year U.S. Treasury and German rates
hit a fresh 4-1/2 year high as yields rose more in
the U.S. than in the euro area, with markets expecting the
Federal Reserve to be more hawkish than the ECB.
It was at 217.53 after reaching 219.95 early in the session,
its highest level since mid-December 2019.
While Fed officials reiterated there was no urgency to cut
rates and supported expectations for two Fed moves this year,
ECB rate-setters argued the ECB could ease its monetary policy
even if the Fed does not.
Lithuanian ECB policymaker Gediminas Simkus said there was a
greater than 50% probability of more than three rate cuts in
2024. Francois Villeroy de Galhau said the ECB was confident of
winning the inflation fight, while ECB chief economist Philip
Lane said inflation was heading to 2% after a bumpy road.
Money markets are pricing in 83 bps of ECB rate cuts
in 2024 from 87 bps late on Friday.
Derivatives on U.S. rates price in 40 bps of rate cuts in
2024, discounting a 60% chance of a second rate cut
this year from around 50% last week after U.S. inflation data.
Italy's 10-year yield, the benchmark for the
euro area's periphery, rose 5 bps at 3.79%.