(Updates with US data details; refreshes prices at 1500 GMT)
By Stefano Rebaudo
June 18 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields
edged lower on Tuesday as concern over political risk in France
subsided somewhat, while a weak read of U.S. consumer spending
helped drive some investment flows into fixed income.
The risk premium that investors demand to hold French
government bonds dropped from its recent highs as markets hope
that France's National Rally will backtrack on fiscally
expensive pledges should it win upcoming parliamentary
elections.
German 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for the
euro area, was flat at 2.403%, having risen earlier by as much
as 2.5 basis points (bps) to 2.437%.
Data that showed U.S. retail sales barely rose in May fed a
bid for Treasuries, which in turn led to a pickup in euro zone
bond prices, pushing yields off the day's highs.
The recovery in German investor morale tapered off in June,
the ZEW economic research institute said.
Markets are currently pricing in another European Central
Bank (ECB) rate cut and a roughly 50% chance of a third move in
2024.
Analysts have mixed views about a further rise in the French
risk premium, but they expect uncertainty to remain high until
the second round of the elections on July 7.
Investors could be cautious about selling French bonds more
aggressively as the ECB could use the Transmission Protection
Instrument (TPI), which allows it to buy unlimited amounts of
bonds to avoid unwarranted and disorderly yield spread widening,
which could hamper the transmission of the monetary policy.
The ECB's chief economist, Philip Lane, said on Monday there
was no need to come to France's rescue now because recent market
turmoil fuelled by political uncertainty was "not disorderly".
ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the ECB would
monitor markets because price and financial stability are
closely linked.
The gap between French and German 10-year yields
- a gauge of the risk premium on French government
bonds - tightened 3.1 bps to 71.1 bps. It hit 82.34 bps on
Friday, its highest since February 2017.
Friday's rush into safe-haven assets made clear that
investors weren't keen to go into the weekend with too much risk
on their books, but the mood changed since Monday.
The leader of the far-right National Rally, Marine Le Pen,
said during the weekend she was seeking cohabitation with
President Emmanuel Macron.
"This (the Le Pen remarks) would increase the prospects that
the current market rout will be resolved more like the BTP fears
after (Giorgia) Meloni took office than the UK gilt crisis in
the wake of Liz Truss," said Christoph Rieger, head of rate and
credit strategy at Commerzbank.
The Italian government debt risk premium dropped after Prime
Minister Meloni took office as she assured Italy would abide by
European fiscal rules.
Italy's 10-year yield was last down 6.2 bps at
3.882%, leaving the Italian-German spread down 4.4
bps at 147.3 bps.